If you could be shown that you were being lied into a narrative about an immigrant crime wave in Britain, would that make you more skeptical of the wider narrative of a refugee crime wave across both Europe and America?
Migration Central, one of Britain’s immigration skeptic organizations, reports, “There were 16,771 convictions for sexual offences, with a known nationality, between 2021 and 2023 and migrants accounted for 2,500 of these. This is 15% of sexual offence convictions during this time period.”
Eek! These immigrants are barbarians!
But then, once you realize that immigrants are 12.7% of the British population, and tend to be younger and more likely male on average (young people commit crimes, especially sex crimes, and men commit more crimes than women), you realize it’s just about what you’d expect from a cohort of white native Britons if the demographics were adjusted for age and gender.
Overall crime in Britain is occasionally reported along ethnic and national lines, and the most recent British Home Office report (see chart below) of 2023 crime in England and Wales shows that crime rates pretty closely approximated American crime rates on race, with arrest rates of perpetrators being highest for British-born black people, and lowest for Asians. Asian immigrants, including immigrants from all the enumerated Muslim countries, tended to have crime rates equal to or lower than whites, and African black immigrants had lower crime rates than British-born blacks. Victimization surveys in the same report showed that immigrants were slightly less likely to report being victimized in a sex crime than British-born citizens.
All the available data shows that most violent crime in England and Wales is down over the past few decades as the British population has aged with its baby bust, with the exception of rape. Rape has increased by several multiples as reporting has increased and the definition of rape was heavily expanded. The same has happened in the United States, as the federal government expanded its definition of rape a decade ago according to the CJIS Advisory Policy Board–approved revision in 2013 and the definition change increased the number of reported rapes in the U.S. by more than 40%.
There’s no reason a lawless group, whether immigrants or natives, would suddenly engage in many multiples more rapes and remain steadfastly just as law-abiding on all other crimes. When you see one crime statistic fall far out of line with all the other crimes in a society, there’s something awry with that one statistic and not the baseline of criminality in a society. In England’s case, there’s more reporting of rapes that already were occurring (after the Jimmy Saville scandal) and it’s the expansion of the definition of rape n 2003 to include for the first time all non-vaginal bodily penetration without consent (including the rape of men) when rates began to spike.
Yet the narrative in the right-wing tabloid media is that immigrants have made Britain a nation where crime is out of control.
So what they’re left with to support the narrative is cherry-picking tiny immigrant niche communities like Afghans and Eritreans. “Afghans were 22.3 times more likely than British citizens to be convicted of sex crimes,” GBNews reporter Holly Bishop reported breathlessly earlier this year, “with a rate of 59 per 10,000 population.” But with a population of less than 120,000 Afghans in Britain and Wales, that’s about 700 rapes in a country that recorded more than 80,000 rapes in each of the past few years. The Afghan case may be a warning to screen a few immigrants’ backgrounds more carefully, especially from war-broken countries like Afghanistan. But it’s not an indictment of immigrants-writ-large as crime risks. If immigrants from a few countries have higher than average rates of criminality than the native-born, the overall statistics mean that immigrants from some other countries in Asia, Africa, and other Middle Eastern countries necessarily have a lot lower rate of criminality than the native-born. Arabs, as the chart above reveals, have half the criminality rate of white Britons.
It ain’t the immigrants. It never was. There’s a lie being sold to Britons and Americans about an immigration crime wave in the media, and the statistics prove its falsehood. In America, all the available data shows immigrants to America tend to be a bit less likely to commit violent crimes (see here, here, here and here) than the native-born.
If you’ve been lied to once, the intelligent response is to ask who lied to you and for what reasons, and not to move on to the next lie. But most people just move on to the next big lie.
I’ve run into both the above niche “don’t-look-at-the-overall-stats” argument as well as the “hey-rape-rates-are-increasing-it-must-be-the-furriners” argument before. Let’s do one more case of this lie before moving on to who’s doing the selling of the lie.
A decade ago the pro-Israel, neoconservative Gatestone Institute was fervently selling the political right on the narrative of a Muslim rape wave in Sweden, one that caused an increase in rape rates by more than 1,700%. Their scribblings were cribbed by Breitbart, Alex Jones, and other well-trafficked sites on the political right.
Immigration levels to Sweden actually fell in 2005—the year Sweden changed its rape laws—and every year rape rates began to spike dramatically despite fewer immigrants entering the country. The reason was obvious. In 2005, Sweden began to record rapes by the number of acts rather than the number of victims; under the old law, a man who confessed to raping his step-daughter nightly for a year was one case, while after 2005 it was 365 cases. So it’s not surprising that rape rates multiplied faster than any other country in Europe at the time. Also, bizarrely, some kinds of consensual sex were then termed legally rape in Sweden, as Wikileaks founder Julian Assange found out with two rape counts for consensual one-night flings.
As in Britain, other crimes which are not so easy to statistically multiply, like murder (you can’t invent more bodies), have remained stable or declined slightly. Murders in Sweden have remained about the same for more than two decades, averaging about one hundred per year.
There were similar scams about rape waves a decade ago in all the whitest-of-white northern European countries, including Germany, Denmark, Norway, and France. I could go over each of these here and explain how they were deliberately deceptive and created a factually false narrative, but I’ve already done that elsewhere.
Any way you look at immigration and crime⏤if you actually look at immigration and crime⏤you see that immigration is not a driver of crime rates. But that’s the problem with the people lobbying the political right that immigration is driving crime rates; they’re not looking at the rates, and they don’t want you to start looking at them. The people who know the most about immigrant crime rates are the people least concerned about immigrant crime and the people who know the least about immigrant crime rates are the most concerned about immigrant crime. Nobody in Washington wants an honest look at the data; they want a political bogeyman. And a big part of the reason for the narrative of criminal aliens, especially criminals from Muslim countries, is the domestic Israel lobby.
Coincidentally, or perhaps not coincidentally, American public opinion of Muslims has historically moved along the lines of Israeli national interests. Americans had no strong opinion about Muslims after the nineteenth century Barbary Wars that shut down Islamic states’ taxation of shipping traffic through the Mediterranean (i.e., the Barbary “pirates”). After the state of Israel was founded, Sunni Muslims became the bad guys, primarily composing most of the periphery of Israeli territory and—thanks to the U.S. coup in Iran and the pro-Israel Shah—Shiite Muslims became known as the “moderates.” After the Iranian revolution, this reversed. All Muslims were now suspect, but Iran’s support for Hezbollah in Lebanon and Palestinians necessitated Shiites becoming the “extremists.”
Islamic immigration does present a threat to Israeli dominance of American politics, as the rise of Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) and Rashida Tlalib (D-MI) reflect Islamic immigration pockets. The irony is that Republicans are the key targets of this propaganda, and as a result of internalizing the criminal alien fiction they’ve alienated their own Islamic vote, which was reliably Republican until 2001. Islamic immigration to the West presents a threat to the stream of foreign aid to Israel, and from the United States in particular. The Israel lobby knows it’s far easier to “other” a group as dangerous when it’s not personally known to a population. If that group is already numbered among your friends and co-workers, generating any kind of hate or villain narrative is much more difficult.
Nina Rosenwald’s Gatestone Institute got the whole “Muslim crime wave” narrative started, though today her organization is a tiny operator compared to all the other Zionist organs and influencers who have demonized Muslim migrants. Rosenwald, who is a Sears & Roebuck heiress and the “sugar mama of Islamophobia,” founded the Gatestone Institute in 2012 and checks all the pro-war, pro-Israel boxes: former board member of AIPAC, founding board member of the Center for Security Policy, and board member of the anti-Muslim CAMERA. She picked John Bolton to chair the Gatestone Institute until Trump appointed him as national security advisor in 2018, and the organization was founded with former CIA chief R. James Woolsey as the chair of the board of governors. So the Gatestone Institute was both spooked-up and Hasbara-grounded from the beginning.
Of course, it’s not just loyalty to Israeli national interests that may be a factor. Generating graft through politics is also a factor. The same former CIA Director Woolsey also served as a member of Genie Oil and Gas Company’s Strategic Advisory Board, along with a host of other powerful people such as former Vice President Dick Cheney. Genie Oil and Gas was one of the companies that got an exclusive contract to drill in Israeli-occupied Golan Heights from the Israeli government in 2013.
One would think you could easily dismiss allegations of a rape wave among persons who adopt a religion that explicitly condemns any sex outside of marriage (which, Islam, like Christianity, does repeatedly in its holy texts) and promotes what Christian-era America used to call “modesty” in women. But there’s a ready segment of the population in every country willing to accept on faith the media narrative that Muslims as a group are sex-crazed rapists responsible for what bought-and-paid-for news media are falsely terming rising crime rates in Europe.
The media narrative of a wave of sex-crazed Muslim refugees makes the rounds in Europe, as in the case of this famous Polish magazine cover, with lustful dusky brown hands grabbing at a beautiful blonde white woman.
As in America, they never have statistics showing Muslims commit more crimes than the native population (at least not after adjusting for age and gender demographics), but typically point to a single anecdote or niche statistic gleaned from overall crime that’s rising and assume it’s because of immigrants. And the anecdote, identifying a perpetrator in a targeted group victimizing a group selected for propagandization, is an old tactic going back to the old Jim Crow era. It’s in Israeli national interests to stop Islamic immigration to America, so creating a D. W. Griffith Birth of a Nation narrative (the 1915 film that culturally reincarnated the Ku Klux Klan) against Muslims today is on the docket, and has been for more than a decade.
The narrative of immigrant crime is today being sold to Americans who can’t imagine a plot against America more up-to-date or more finely sophisticated than a 1980s Chuck Norris movie, such as dusky brown hordes of Muslim terrorists with their rape gangs (Delta Force, 1986), the inherently criminal behavior of “Latin drug gangs” infiltrating American cities (Code of Silence, 1985), the Asian communist threat (Missing in Action, 1984) or Asian gang assassins (The Octogon, 1980).
Is it too much to ask to have a threat plot to America that wasn’t already worn out forty years ago? Don’t get me wrong; I loved those 80s Chuck Norris movies. But please, leave them in film and back in the 80s.
And if you’ve been lied to once, don’t just move on to believing the next lie.