“You can ignore reality, but you cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.”
– Ayn Rand
I have said that aircraft carriers are the chariot and crossbow of the 21st century not fit for purpose on the oceans and the tank is certainly a nominee for that notion. Manned tanks are not fit for purpose on the 21st century battlefield. Again, the lack of martial imagination in the Army is breath-taking.
A detailed breakdown of M1E3 program expectation is here.
The inclusion of an auto-loader and the crew reduction from four to three may cause significant issues but the greater issue is that the era of the manned tank is over. Not all auto-loaders are created equal. While it is indeed true that Eastern-style carousel auto-loader have a habit of dramatic failure, the more modern turret bustle auto-loader, used in such tanks as the French Leclerc and Japanese Type 10, is much safer.
With an auto-loader, there are a couple of benefits; first, the door in the armor can be much smaller, and only be the size that’s just big enough for the ammo to pass through. You can also make the armor compartment for the ammo much thicker since you don’t have a large amor door that needs to constantly open and close. This drastically reduces the vulnerability.
The current M1A2 SEPv3 already comes in at close to 78 tons with all of its protective options; add in anything else, it will push past the 80 ton mark.The only way to get the weight down is to reduce the size; by going to an auto-loader and down to a three man crew, they can significantly cut the weight down to under 60 tons, whilst increasing protection.
The Ukraine conflict and the forecasts for the ubiquity of UAVs and robots on the battlefield for the remainder of this century have put the question to ALL manned combat modalities and their efficacy.
The U.S. Army announced in September 2023 that it canceled its planned variant, the M1A2 SEPv4, in favor of an entirely new variant of the Abrams. The new tank was dubbed M1E3, and in December 2025, the Army received the first prototype of the new tank. Gen. Randy George, the chief of staff of the Army, revealed the delivery, which came much sooner than anticipated. The first prototype wasn’t expected to reach the Army until the end of 2026, but Abrams’ manufacturer, General Dynamics Land Systems (GDLS), drove its newest tank way past expectations, as the prototype is reportedly 100% complete.
I am impressed they delivered ahead of schedule and maybe they can deliver the remaining order before 2030 but the history is not kind to that prediction.
The M1E3 will likely be lighter than the current model of M1A2, as its growing tonnage reduces the tank’s tactical transportability. In this way, bigger isn’t always better, and the M1E3 might clock in at around 60 tons. The AbramsX weighed 10 tons less than its predecessor, so this seems likely. The tank’s design also included lessons learned from their performance in Ukraine during the Russo-Ukrainian War, so it will likely feature anti-drone defense systems and other advanced means of protecting itself.
The folly of fielding tanks without considering either loyal wing-men (smaller scale unmanned ground combat vehicles) or even the independent deployment of one third scale smaller tank vehicles.
But the defense acquisition system is a self-licking ice cream cone that continues to build twentieth century anachronisms with some 21st century decorations.
https://www.slashgear.com/2063071/us-army-first-m1e3-abrams-tank-prototype-delivered/
