A lot of foreign policy talk collapses into slogans until you ask one simple question: if things are going fine, why are oil prices still telling a different story? We bring Larry Johnson back to sort through the gap between public claims and what the Strait of Hormuz, tanker security, and the energy market seem to be signaling in real time. Along the way, we react to Iran’s blunt skepticism about negotiations after attacks and alleged deal violations, and we talk through why US Iran diplomacy looks frozen despite confident headlines.
From there, we get concrete about consequences: reported US casualties, the incentives to minimize numbers, and how “symbolic progress” can be used to calm investors without changing facts on the water or repairing damaged oil infrastructure. We also explore how disruption in the Persian Gulf ripples into diesel pricing, sour crude availability, and broader economic stress, where even unrelated shocks can accelerate sell offs when markets are already on edge.
The second half turns to Yemen and the Ansar Allah fight with Saudi Arabia, including why more bombing is not a magic fix, what earlier campaigns cost, and why the Houthis are described here as an independent force rather than an Iranian puppet. We close by pivoting to Ukraine and Russia, challenging the claim that refinery strikes explain global diesel shortages, and focusing instead on supply chain math and repair capacity.
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