European officials warned that the pipeline of weapons flowing to Ukraine could halt if the US breaks the ceasefire with Iran. 

A European diplomat speaking with Foreign Policy about the transfer of missile interceptors to Ukraine explained, “Everything will depend on the situation around Iran.” In February, the US and Israel started an unprovoked war against Iran. Tehran’s military strategy involves deploying large numbers of missiles and drones, depleting Washington’s interceptor stockpile. 

Ukraine is also in need of interceptors as the war against Russia continues. After Russia invaded in 2022, NATO leaders pledged to support Ukraine until it was able to take back all of its territory. However, that pledge is now meeting reality as years of war in Ukraine, and now Iran has depleted the US stockpile. 

Of concern for Ukraine is the Patriot missile defense system. The Patriot is the most advanced interceptor provided to Kiev. However, the US used half of its stockpile of Patriot interceptors during the first five weeks of the war against Iran. At current production rates, it will take close to four years to refill the US stockpile to the pre-war level. 

For the past three weeks, the US and Iran have been in an uneasy truce. However, on Monday, multiple ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, signaling the ceasefire could soon collapse. 

While President Donald Trump cut US military aid to Ukraine last year, Washington has continued to sell weapons to Kiev via NATO. After Trump terminated Joe Biden’s program of sending free arms to Ukraine, NATO established the PURL fund to buy American weapons for Kiev. 

One European diplomat told Foreign Policy that the program may soon collapse.