A US general said that any war with China would result in far more American casualties than the Global War on Terror.
“Our assumptions for planning is that casualty estimates will be much higher than you might have seen or witnessed as part of the Global War on Terror between Iraq and Afghanistan and other places where there are very small numbers, relatively in contacts who were who were killed and injured, as compared to large-scale combat operations,” Lt. Gen. Joel Vowell, deputy commanding general for US Army Pacific, explained at the Defense Writers Group last week.
He added, “A potential conflict with the People’s Republic of China likely would result in large-scale casualties.”
Vowell went on to explain that the military would need to partner with countries in the region and deploy updated versions of Mobile Army Surgical Hospitals to treat wounded soldiers. The general admitted he was unsure how the Pentagon would complete this task.
“And I’ll be honest, I don’t know if we have the full answer on it,” he said.
Last year, Congress was briefed on the results of war games between the US and China in a fight over Taiwan. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) ran the simulation 25 times and found the US would lose 10-20 warships, two aircraft carriers, and hundreds of aircraft. CISI estimates at least 10,000 casualties to US troops, although some simulations resulted in over 20,000 injured and dead US soldiers.
Centre for International Maritime Security (CIMSEC) reviewed US-China war games conducted by multiple organizations, including the Department of Defense and RAND. “In most cases, wargaming studies still show that a China and Taiwan conflict, featuring a United States intervention, would be close run and incredibly bloody for all sides,” CIMSES concluded.
The group added that the general trend over time is for Beijing to perform better in any conflict, with some war games conducted in 2023 concluding that Taipei will surrender within months.
Unlike Ukraine, because of the location of Taiwan, the US would not be able to aid Taipei without the direct involvement of American troops.
Vowell warns that the only way to avoid a catastrophic crisis is to avoid war with China. “And so, the ultimate goal here, ladies and gentlemen, is no war,” Vowell said. “It would be catastrophic on a humanitarian scale, civilians, military alike. It’d be catastrophic on a global economic scale. And so medically, we practice what to do to protect and to triage and to evacuate our soldiers, I think we’ve got work to do there.”
However, Washington has been moving closer to war with Beijing since President Barack Obama began the “pivot to Asia.” Under that policy, the US began its largest military buildup since WWII in the Indo-Pacific.
During his first administration, President Donald Trump further escalated tensions with China by launching a large-scale trade war with China. President Joe Biden continued the trend by saying multiple times that the US would come to Taiwan’s defense if China attacked.
