The Ukrainian Armed Forces were in trouble. Russian assaults and Ukrainian desertions had left a weakened force with an unsolvable manpower shortage. Weapons were running out, and America’s war on Iran had diverted the most needed military equipment, including Patriot interceptors, with no solution in sight. With a Russian summer offensive on the horizon, for the first time, collapse and defeat was a real possibility.
And then, just at the crucial moment, the Ukrainian Armed Forces turned the tide. Innovations in drone technology blunted the Russian advance bringing it to a near standstill. And, for the first time since 2023, Ukraine won back more territory than it lost. Russian soldiers began to be killed at a rate that exceeded recruits, shrinking the Russian army, with over 1,000 personnel killed or seriously wounded every day. For every Ukrainian soldier who is killed or wounded, there are now eight Russian soldiers. And Ukraine took the lead in deep strikes into the enemy’s territory, with strikes on military and oil facilities bringing Russia near to surrender.
That’s the narrative every major Western media outlet repeats every day. That’s the narrative Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelensky, sells Europe to convince them that Ukraine can still win and to assure the continued flow of weapons. And, in a strange loop, that’s the narrative every European leader is whispering to Zelensky to convince him that Ukraine can still win and that Ukraine should keep fighting the Russians.
American officials have recently joined in. Jeremy Levin, the Deputy Secretary of State for Foreign Assistance, Humanitarian Affairs, and Freedom of Religion, recently said in a speech, “As of now, we are in a position where Ukraine is winning the war.” Levin added that while the Ukrainian Armed Forces are advancing, the Russian army is waiting for winter.
But the turning of the tide is propaganda. It is a myth. It is refuted by the narrative told by military analysts and by the reality on the ground.
The narrative of Ukraine’s territorial advances raises the “obvious question,” Russian President Vladimir Putin, recently pointed out, of “where exactly, and what territory are they talking about?”
Putin laid out a comprehensive catalogue of places along the front where Russian forces are advancing. He named the region, the distance Russia’s forces are from the target city, and the current status of the battle. Putin’s account is largely confirmed by reputable military analysts.
The tide has not turned, and the Donbas may be in the gravest danger of falling that it has been in since the start of the war. The Russian army is slowly, but steadily, advancing on several key fronts. The Ukrainian Armed Forces, now feeling the effect of their manpower shortages, is increasingly unable to counterattack.
Russia is fast approaching several key cities that are in danger of falling, and some have already fallen faster than fortified cities fell earlier in the war. In some regions, Ukrainian defenses seem to be collapsing.
Most importantly, in parts of the key stronghold of Konstantinovka, depleted and exhausted, the Ukrainian Armed Forces seem to have collapsed. The city seems to be in imminent danger of falling, if it has not fallen already, and beyond it lie several more cities that will then face the same danger, bringing Russia’s goal of taking all of Donbas within reach.
While providing the usual mandatory caveats that Ukraine has stalled the Russian advance, that the fortress belt cities “are not in imminent danger of falling,” and that Ukraine has taken the war to Russia with a campaign of long-range drone strikes, The New York Times quietly adds that residents of the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine fear that under the current “onslaught” the “beginning of the end” has arrived. The Times reports that the Russian Armed Forces “have advanced close enough to batter them with growing numbers” of bombs.
The BBC, more soberingly, reports that the fall of Konstantinovka “is a matter of time” and that “if it falls, Russian forces would be able push towards Ukraine’s last remaining strongholds in the east, the cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, and move closer to seizing Donbas completely.” Not quite a turning tide.
The long-range war is not different. To go by the media, one would have to believe the improbable tale that, while every Russian missile seems to hit an apartment building, every Ukrainian drone destroys a military site or oil facility.
But, as The New York Times quietly confesses, “The severity of Russian attacks in Ukraine is often underreported.” While Ukraine fires predominantly drones, Russia responds with much more powerful missiles, including ballistic and hypersonic missiles. While the media reports strikes on apartment buildings, the Russian Ministry of Defense reports precision strikes on weapons factories, military airfield infrastructure and energy facilities.
That may or may not be true. But the best evidence that Ukraine is losing the long-range war may be that Kiev is desperate to end it.
Not extensively reported in the West, Putin says that Ukraine has proposed that “both sides should stop carrying out long-range strikes deep inside each other’s territory.” Putin goes on to say that, “the reason for this proposal is obvious. Our retaliatory strikes deep inside Ukrainian territory are far more powerful, more effective and, frankly, more destructive.”
The danger of the myth of the turning tide is that it seduces Zelensky to go on fighting a losing war that advances none of Ukraine’s goals and all of Europe’s. Refuting the myth and facing reality is a crucial step in finally taking into consideration the goals and welfare of Ukrainians and in establishing the groundwork for serious negotiations to, finally, stop the war.
