On March 14, A Russian jet collided with an American drone, leading to the downing of the drone in the Black Sea. The United States says that the drone was flying in international airspace when two Russian Su-27 fighter jets made nineteen high-speed passes near the drone before dumping jet fuel on it in an attempt to disrupt it. Though it cannot be seen in the edited video released by the Pentagon, the U.S. says that on a final pass, one of the Russian jets approached the drone from behind at high speed and struck the rear propellor. The video picks up after the collision and shows the...
China Brokers Agreement Between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Sidelining United States
Until it happened, it was unthinkable. The United States has for decades guarded its role as the sole negotiator in the Middle East. It has insisted on being the chief arbiter of agreements and the architect and decider of partnerships. But on March 10, China emerged as the broker of a transformative agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia while Washington was sidelined and left out of the room. The most important recent realignment of the Middle East was shaped by Beijing. The story is so critical that it is too big to be contained in one story. It is two stories: the shifting of regional...
The United States Is in Conflict with Countries for Doing Things We Know They’re Not Doing
China, Balloons, and Spying On February 4, the U.S. military shot down a Chinese balloon they claim was a surveillance device spying on U.S. territory. The unprecedented “kinetic action against an airborne object...within United States or American airspace” was followed by three more objects being shot down by the U.S. and Canada over their airspace. The conflict that followed derailed potential and necessary Sino-American diplomacy. But Washington knows three crucial things: the surveillance balloon was not intentionally sent over American airspace, the next three objects were not even...
Public vs. Private: Managing Perceptions of the War in Ukraine
“I want Russia to be defeated in Ukraine,” French President Emmanuel Macron publicly told the media. But it’s not what he privately told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. He also said that now is not the right time for dialogue with Moscow and that France is ready to sustain “a longer conflict.” That’s not what he told Zelensky either. “America...will stand with you as long as it takes,” President Biden publicly promised Ukraine in his State of the Union Address. But it’s not what his administration privately told Zelensky. “The war I know about is not the war you are reading about,”...
When Biden Says ‘As Long As It Takes,’ What Does Ukraine Hear?
In his State of the Union Address on February 7, President Joe Biden once again told Ukraine that “America...will stand with you as long as it takes.” In case the world didn’t hear, Biden moved to a more dramatic stage and repeated the words. Speaking from Kiev, where he met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Biden spoke again of America’s “unwavering and unflagging commitment to Ukraine’s democracy, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.” He promised that “that support will endure.” But though Biden spoke the words loudly on an international stage, that may not be what Zelensky...
The U.S.-Led Sanctions Blitz on Russia Has Failed
In February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, the U.S. orchestrated a perhaps unprecedented sanctions clampdown on Russia. A month later, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen declared with certainty that "the Russian economy will be devastated as a consequence of what we’ve already done." She was wrong. The sanctions on Russia have failed to achieve their primary goal: they have not forced Russia to end its war with Ukraine. They have even failed to achieve the means to that goal: they have not devastated the Russian economy. Yellen boasted that "We have isolated Russia financially. The...
Who Really Started the Ukraine Wars?
Though they are being fought in the confusion of a single catastrophic conflict, there are four closely related, but distinct, wars being fought in Ukraine. The first is the war within Ukraine. The second is the war between Russia and Ukraine. The third is the proxy war between NATO and Russia. And the fourth is the direct war between the United States and Russia. Deconstructing this single conflict into its four real wars may be necessary to understand the issues that must be resolved if a negotiated settlement is to be possible. The latent domestic problems that have been ripped open by...
No, China Is Not ‘Switching Sides’
Since President Xi Jinping was re-elected as China’s leader at the Communist Party Congress on October 23, 2022, there has been a noticeable change in tone from Chinese officials towards the United States. This change in tone, coupled with Chinese restraint in their support for Russia in the war in Ukraine, has led to speculation that China is changing course and turning away from Russia and back towards the United States and the West. But that speculation is challenged by recent events. After China made it clear, upon Nancy Pelosi’s arrival in Taiwan, that a visit by the House speaker...
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