But for those familiar with bureaucratic dynamics, it was clear from the outset that DOGE would fail—not because its leaders lacked the will or intelligence, but because it was attempting to reform a system that, by its very nature, resists reform.
The Iron Law of Bureaucracy, coined by political scientist Jerry Pournelle, explains why efforts like DOGE are doomed from the start. Bureaucracies do not exist to fulfill their stated mission; they exist to perpetuate themselves. And when threatened, they will fight tooth and nail to survive, using every tool at their disposal—including legal maneuvering, political resistance, and strategic inefficiency.
Pournelle’s Iron Law of Bureaucracy states that:
“In any bureaucratic organization, there will be two kinds of people: (1) Those who are devoted to the goals of the organization, and (2) Those who are devoted to the organization itself. Over time, the second group will always gain control, and the organization’s mission will become secondary to its own expansion and survival.”
This law applies to every bureaucracy—whether it’s a government agency, a corporate compliance department, or an international institution.
At its core, bureaucracies evolve to protect and grow themselves, because the people who rise to power within them are those who prioritize job security, budget increases, and regulatory expansion—not those who actually want to achieve the organization’s stated purpose.
This is why:
- Government agencies never eliminate their own jobs—even if their mission is complete.
- Regulatory bodies always find new problems to solve, even if they must redefine existing issues.
- Spending cuts are always made in ways that create public outrage, ensuring future budgets remain untouched.
When DOGE was created to reduce federal spending, it directly threatened the bureaucratic ecosystem. It wasn’t just trying to cut waste—it was challenging the very survival of agencies, departments, and bureaucrats whose existence depended on ever-expanding budgets.
And so, the response from the bureaucracy was swift and predictable.
DOGE’s strategy was simple: audit and eliminate wasteful contracts, streamline federal agencies and reduce redundant positions, and shrink the scope of regulatory overreach.
On paper, it was a no-brainer. In practice, the bureaucracy mobilized against it immediately. Agencies slow-walked DOGE’s reforms, ensuring that spending cuts created the maximum public inconvenience, rather than true efficiency. Essential services were affected first to create backlash. Federal judges blocked executive orders aimed at downsizing the federal workforce and overturning contracts. Lawmakers, mainly Democrats but including Republicans, resisted deeper cuts for fear of losing political patronage networks or disrupting their home-state economies. The press framed DOGE’s efforts as “reckless” and painted every spending cut as a direct assault on essential government functions.
This was classic bureaucratic survival strategy in action: stall, delay, litigate, and ensure that any cost-cutting effort is as painful and controversial as possible.
While the Iron Law of Bureaucracy explains why bureaucracies always expand, Public Choice Theory explains why politicians and bureaucrats have every incentive to maintain the status quo.
Public Choice Theory, developed by James Buchanan and Gordon Tullock, argues that:
- Politicians act in their own self-interest, just like market actors.
- Government officials and bureaucrats respond to incentives, seeking larger budgets, job security, and expanded authority.
- Voters are rationally ignorant, meaning they do not pay close attention to the intricate details of government spending.
This explains why politicians rarely eliminate programs, even when they are inefficient. Cutting spending means angering a small but vocal constituency, while the benefits are spread too thin to be politically useful. Regulatory agencies always expand—because more regulations mean more funding and job security for the bureaucrats in charge. Budget reductions are structured to fail, ensuring that any attempt to shrink the state leads to visible disruptions that scare the public into restoring funding.
DOGE never stood a chance, because the bureaucrats and politicians it was trying to reform were the very people who controlled the process.
DOGE’s failure is just the latest chapter in a long history of failed government reform efforts. The Keep Commission (1905, Roosevelt) sought to streamline federal operations but was ignored by Congress. The Grace Commission (1982, Reagan) identified $424 billion in waste, but virtually none of its recommendations were implemented. The National Performance Review(1993, Clinton/Gore) promised efficiency but left bureaucratic structures intact.
In each case, reform efforts were sabotaged by the very institutions they sought to reform. Bureaucracy is a self-replicating organism—it may be temporarily restrained, but it will always find a way to restore and expand itself.
The Iron Law of Bureaucracy, combined with Public Choice incentives, ensures that government never voluntarily shrinks. It only expands, entrenches, and resists all efforts at reform.
DOGE was a bold experiment, but it was doomed from the start. The modern federal bureaucracy is simply too legally entrenched, politically protected, and institutionally self-interested to allow meaningful reductions.
Unless fundamental changes are made—such as sunset clauses on programs, automatic spending caps, or a shift in voter incentives—bureaucracy will remain permanent, growing, and immune to reform.
For now, the battle between government reformers and entrenched bureaucrats continues. But history shows us that bureaucracy almost always wins.
Government doesn’t shrink itself. It has to be forced to shrink. And so far, no administration has found a way to do that.
