Money-Supply Growth Slows in February

by | Mar 31, 2019

Money-Supply Growth Slows in February

by | Mar 31, 2019

Money supply growth slowed in February, falling to the lowest rate recorded since February of last year. Overall, money-supply growth remains well below the growth rates experienced from 2009 to 2016, and has fluctuated little since March of last year

In February, year-over-year growth in the money supply was at 3.1 percent. That was down from January’s growth rate of 3.3 percent, but was up from February 2018’s rate of 3.0 percent.

tms1_3.png

The money-supply metric used here — the “true” or Rothbard-Salerno money supply measure (TMS) — is the metric developed by Murray Rothbard and Joseph Salerno, and is designed to provide a better measure of money supply fluctuations than M2. The Mises Institute now offers regular updates on this metric and its growth.

This measure of the money supply differs from M2 in that it includes treasury deposits at the Fed (and excludes short-time deposits, traveler’s checks, and retail money funds).

M2 growth fell in February, growing 4.2 percent, compared to January’s growth rate of 4.3 percent. M2 grew 4.1 percent in February of last year. Like the TMS measure, the M2 growth rate has fallen considerably since late 2016, but has varied little in recent months.

Money supply growth can often be a helpful measure of economic activity. During periods of economic boom, money supply tends to grow quickly as banks make more loans. Recessions, on the other hand, tend to be preceded by periods of falling money-supply growth.

Many factors contribute to these trends. In recent months, money supply growth — in both M2 and TMS — has likely been impacted by falling growth rates in real estate loans at commercial banks. In February, real estate loans grew 2.9 percent, year over year, which was a 51-month low. The demand for mortgage loans has softened as mortgage rates have risen. In February, the 30-year, fixed average mortgage rate reached 4.4 percent, which was down from November’s recent high of 4.87. February 2018’s average mortgage rate was much lower, however, coming in at 4.33 percent. However, the Fed has recently signaled it plans to half increases in the target rate, and this may lead to more real-estate loan activity.

Republished from mises.org.


Ryan McMaken (@ryanmcmaken) is a senior editor at the Mises Institute. Send him your article submissions for Mises Wire and The Austrian, but read article guidelines first. Ryan has degrees in economics and political science from the University of Colorado, and was the economist for the Colorado Division of Housing from 2009 to 2014. He is the author of Commie Cowboys: The Bourgeoisie and the Nation-State in the Western Genre.

Ryan McMaken

Ryan McMaken is the editor of Mises Wire and The Austrian. Ryan has degrees in economics and political science from the University of Colorado, and was the economist for the Colorado Division of Housing from 2009 to 2014. He is the author of Commie Cowboys: The Bourgeoisie and the Nation-State in the Western Genre.

View all posts

Our Books

Shop books published by the Libertarian Institute.

libetarian institute longsleeve shirt

Our Books

cb0cb1ef 3fcb 417d 80d8 4eef7bbd8290

Recent Articles

Recent

Seven Reasons Not to Bomb Iran

Seven Reasons Not to Bomb Iran

“There are two ways Iran can be handled,” U.S. President Donald Trump has said, “militarily, or you make a deal.” National Security Adviser Mike Waltz advocated for the military solution; Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and Vice President JD Vance...

read more
MAGA or ‘Khanservatism’?

MAGA or ‘Khanservatism’?

Temu, a Chinese-based online retailer that has been available in the United States since the fall of 2022. Quickly become a leading online retailer, Temu has grown so fast that Bernstein analyst Robin Zhu projects that the site will generate as much as $1.8 billion in...

read more
Our 2002 Redux

Our 2002 Redux

In the detention of Mahmoud Khalil and the ensuing crackdown on pro-Palestinian activism by Donald Trump's administration, a recognizable model for governance is emerging. The model is from 2002. During that year, as American citizens were distracted by the aftermath...

read more

Pin It on Pinterest

Share This