USS The Sullivans sinking in New York in 2022. Over the decades, the destroyers have fallen into various states of disrepair. In April 2022, The Sullivans suffered a hull breach and partially sank at the Buffalo and Erie County Naval & Military Park in Buffalo, New York. The vessel had previously been observed taking on water. Despite undergoing repairs in the immediate aftermath of the sinking, additional work is required to make The Sullivans safe.
The US can’t build ships that work.
The US can’t build ships that don’t work in volume.
The USS The Sullivans (DD-537) above is one the WWII Fletcher-class ships serving as a museum that started sinking due to poor maintenance.
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) announced $10 million in funding to support preservation efforts for both The Sullivans and the Gato-class submarine USS Croaker (SS-246). The Buffalo and Erie Naval & Military Park will spearhead restoration efforts for both vessels, with the promised government funds covering approximately half of the expected $21 million that’ll be required.
These are museum ships and not naval ships of the line in current employment. Not only does the US Navy still have significant maintenance and refit problems for ships in the fleet but an existential crisis in shipbuilding capability.
Now the Congressional Research Service (CRS) has issued a scathing indictment of the Navy’s lack of ability to see its promises through for recapitalizing and struggling to reach the mythical 355 ship Navy with a current keel complement of 287 (it has been under 300 since August 2003). The august navalists have even floated the idea of a 381 ship Navy which is impossible. The Arleigh Burke class from 1991 was the last successful surface ship introduced by the US Navy and all the rest have been abject failures to include the Little Crappy Ships that are being retired five years into their thirty “service life”.
The CRS report may be one of the most succinct and concise indictments of decaying shipbuilding in the US to come out in years.
I read the CRS reports so you don’t have to.
The Navy fell below 300 battle force ships (the types of ships that count toward the quoted size of the Navy) in August 2003 and has generally remained between 270 and 300 battle force ships since then. As of May 28, 2024, the Navy included 296 battle force ships.
The Navy projects that 10 new ships will be delivered to the fleet in FY2025. The Navy’s FY2025 budget proposes retiring 19 existing ships in FY2025, including 10 ships that would be retired before reaching the ends of their expected service lives. As a result, the Navy projects that, under the Navy’s proposed FY2025 budget, the total number of ships in the Navy would decline by a net 9 ships during FY2025, from 296 ships at the start of FY2025 to 287 ships at the end of FY2025. The Navy’s budget submission projects that during the period FY2025-FY2029 (i.e., the years of the FY2025 Future Years Defense Plan [FYDP]), the Navy would include 287, 283, 280, 286, and 291 ships, respectively. Under the Navy’s FY2025 30-year (FY2025-FY2054) shipbuilding plan, the fleet would grow to more than 300 ships in FY2032 and reach a total of more than 381 ships in FY2042.
The math is impossible to do from here to there. On April 2, 2024, the Navy announced significant projected delays in several of its shipbuilding programs.
For press reports about the Navy’s announcement, see, for example: Megan Eckstein, “US Navy Ship Programs Face Years-Long Delays amid Labor, Supply Woes,” Defense News, April 2, 2024; Justin Katz, “Navy Lays Out Major Shipbuilding Delays, in Rare Public Accounting,” Breaking Defense, April 2, 2024; Nick Wilson, “Navy Shipbuilding
Review Details Delays across Submarine and Ship Acquisition Portfolio,” Inside Defense, April 2, 2024; Cal Biesecker, “Navy Confirms Delays In Shipbuilding Programs As Part Of Ongoing Review,” Defense Daily, April 3, 2024; Chris Panella, “As It Looks to Keep Its Edge over Rivals, the US Navy’s Biggest Shipbuilding Projects Are Delayed by Years, New Review Finds,” Business Insider, April 3, 2024; Joe Saballa, “US Navy Review Exposes Major Shipbuilding Delays in Nine Key Programs,” Defense Post, April 3, 2024; Thomas Black, “US Navy Shipbuilding Has Fallen Dangerously Behind,” Bloomberg, April 17, 2024; Lauren Frias, “See the 10 Types of New US Navy Warships Plagued by Shipbuilding Delays,” Business Insider, April 17, 2024; Steve Cohen, “Almost All Navy Shipbuilding Is Hopelessly Behind Schedule,” The Hill, May 2, 2024.
Shipbuilding delays are not only informed by a lack of dockyards but consistent delays in promised delivery.
The Committee notes the findings of the Navy’s 45-day Shipbuilding Review found significant delays to several critical shipbuilding programs. Notably, the review’s findings
revealed 12–16 months delay in lead boat construction of the Columbia-class submarine, 24–36 months delay in Virginia-class submarine construction, 18–26 months delay in delivering the third Ford-class carrier, and at least 3 years delay in the lead Constellation- class frigate. Recognizing the importance of fleet capacity in power projection and the Chief of Naval Operations’ new force-level goal of 381 ships, the Committee is increasingly concerned by the long-term impacts of these delays.
What makes these delays even more diabolical is that the Navy has consistently accepted ships that aren’t capable of achieving an operational status as warships on the line. It took five years for the ill-fated Zumwalt-class to bother firing a missile from its VLS in testing and the Ford-class carrier is still plagued by problems reliably launching and retrieving aircraft including the problem-ridden F35B/C aircraft which are humming along at a 30% operational readiness rate.
[T]he total number of battle force ships in the Navy reached a late-Cold War peak of 568 at the end of FY1987 and began declining thereafter.73 The Navy fell below 300
battle force ships in August 2003 and remained below 300 ships for the next 16 years. The Navy briefly returned to a level of 300 ships in early July 2020, for the first time in almost 17 years, subsequently fell back below 300 ships, reached 300 ships again briefly during periods in August and September 2022, and as of May 28, 2024, included 296 battle force ships [Ed: 287 ships at the end of FY2025].
The bottom line is that the shipbuilding capacity in the US (even using foreign shipbuilding assets) can’t cash the checks the US Navy is trying to cash.
No one has lost their job.
No one.
It’s time for sober defense officials to take a pause and completely reassess what a future US Navy looks like.
https://sgp.fas.org/crs/weapons/RL32665.pdf
Email at cgpodcast@pm.me
