Over the last twenty years the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has expanded its power in Africa at an incredible pace. In countries across the continent, the UAE has made enormous investments in shipping, agriculture, energy, mining, and telecommunications. On top of this, they have set up a series of small military installations and made armaments and training deals in all corners of the continent. Due to their low population, most of whom are engaged in managing their economic interest and large foreign population, the Emirates’ military strategy relies on a small number of highly trained regular military as well as a network of proxy forces to guard their investments in Africa, which included $110 billion worth of projects announced between 2019 and 2023, making the UAE Africa’s biggest single investor. The nation’s burgeoning drone industry combined with the recent AI technology deal they made with the United States, as well as the complete lack of accountability of this federation of Sheikhs, makes it all but inevitable that these assets will ultimately be guarded by autonomous AI drones. Once tested in remote parts of Africa, an activity which receives little public notice, it should be expected that autonomous drone technology will ultimately travel across the world.

UAE expansion in Africa has been across all sectors, though the backbone is transportation infrastructure. This gives them a degree of control over almost all goods which come in and out of several major ports on the continent and makes it difficult for weak states to oppose their designs. However, they are also in charge of much production on the continent, including major mines in several states and enormous agricultural holdings primarily in Egypt and Sudan. The mines are of particularly importance, as they supply necessary materials to the UAE arms manufacturing industry. The Emirates also increasingly provide power in several areas of Africa, with major investments in “renewables.” Many electricity projects are in distant locations with little other infrastructure. All of this is part of a strategy to diversify their economy away from oil before the estimated date when their oil wells run dry. Due to their resource investments in Africa and trade arrangements across the world, the UAE is nearly impervious to any single form of economic pressure.

The basic military strategy of the Emirates in Africa is three-pronged, though all rely on their domestic drone industry: a network of small outposts, cultivating relationships with individuals who are often secessionists or not-state actors, and arms and training deals with recognized governments. Their alleged relationship to Mohamed Dagalo (Hemedti) in Sudan, the leader of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary which just captured El Fashir and is accused of mass killings in the city, is the most notorious. However, they have also made allies of the secessionist general Hiftar in eastern Libya, Prime Minster Abiy of Ethiopia, the government of the secessionist state Somaliland, and more. Weak, cash-starved governments across Africa like to work with the Emirates because they are always interested in new partners and investments, are not seen as tied to any specific great power, and prefer to work with strong men instead of dealing with the vagaries of democracy. One hallmark of their strategy is a willingness exit when things are not working, such as the closure of their base in Eritrea.

The burgeoning UAE arms industry primarily focuses on light weapons for modern warfare, such as small arms, light tactical vehicles, and most of all, drones. The UAE has shipped drones to partners across the continent, including the RSF in Sudan, who used them throughout the siege of El Fashir. Commonly, UAE drones are modular or are armed by the end user. This allows the UAE to claim that they are civilian products, and it sometimes ships them with humanitarian aid. Due to the UAE’s extensive control of shipping and other transit infrastructure in Africa as well as their high trade volume, it is difficult to track such shipments going into troubled states and all but possible to prevent it. Since the UAE has few arms export control and the nation’s commercial empire is nominally private, though controlled by the royal family, their ability to deny is always great even in situations where it is not plausible. Pretending there is a difference between state policy and the businesses of the president and prime minister, the Sheikhs of Abu Dhabi and Dubai respectively, is often necessary to make deals with the Emirates.

The UAE’s technology industry has now been greatly bolstered after reaching a deal with President Donald Trump. In May, as part of a large package of trade deals, it was announced that the UAE would be building the largest AI campus outside of the United States. Despite the objections of tech watchers, the deal allows the export to the UAE of advanced AI chips which are usually not allowed to leave the United States due to concerns that they will reach China. Little was said about the military applications of the UAE becoming a major developer of AI technology, though it’s not a stretch to imagine that the U.S. security state sees their lax regulatory environment and lack of transparency as benefits, not drawbacks, in making the country a partner in the development of AI.

The combined circumstances described above suggest that the UAE will apply AI technology to its drones and that those drones will be deployed to Africa. This would be an incredible tool for the UAE to safeguarding its economic assets, many of which are in distant and troubled regions. While AI drones are currently used by Israel, the claim is that they use a large volume of targetting data provided by humans and do not themselves choose to strike, which is much different than using an AI drone to guard a perimeter. Further, unlike the United States, which seems to take joy in reporting its drone strikes even when few are asking, such as in Somalia, the autocratic UAE has no internal mechanisms demanding transparency. Due to their deep investments across the world and the covert nature of their actions, there is also little international actors can do to hold the country accountable.

The end result will likely be UAE manufactured AI drones guarding their ports, mines, farms, power generation, and more. It could take no more than passing too close to one of their properties while hunting or gathering to trigger a lethal strike from an AI drone. In the remoteness of much Africa, and with the UAE controlling much communication infrastructure, it will be all but impossible to track all of those who might be killed by a future autonomous drone. The way the UAE generally interacts with the world will not stop them from agreeing to any treaty against the use of autonomous drones and then doing it anyway, claiming they are human controlled or denying knowledge altogether. The country currently has the means, motive, and opportunity to move humanity towards to a new and terrifying era of warfare, and Africa will prove the perfect testing ground.