Two weeks ago, Kentucky Senator Mitch McConnell announced that he would not seek re-election in 2026. McConnell’s announcement prompted Congressman Thomas Massie to share a poll asking his Twitter followers if he should run for McConnell’s open Senate seat, seek the governorship in 2027, or remain in the House.

If you were me, would you:

— Thomas Massie (@RepThomasMassie) February 20, 2025

Naturally, Massie’s followers were very enthusiastic about the former idea. But the prospect of a Senator Thomas Massie already has the Israel lobby on high alert.

Republican Jewish Coalition CEO Matt Brooks told Jewish Insider, “If Tom Massie chooses to enter the race for US Senate in Kentucky, the RJC campaign budget to ensure he is defeated will be unlimited.” Back in May 2023, Massie accused the RJC of taking “[the] neocon position that US taxpayers should fund the war in Ukraine.” The RJC responded by attacking Massie for, among other things, opposing U.S. funding for the Iron Dome and voting against a resolution condemning the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions movement. Meanwhile, Rabbi Shlomo Litvin of the Kentucky Jewish Council accused Massie of “[going] out of his way to troll Jews,” and Melanie Maron Pell of the American Jewish Committee suggested that Massie demonstrates “outright hostility with the Jewish community.”

It should come as no surprise that the Israel lobby is doing everything in its power to torpedo any talk of a Thomas Massie Senate campaign. Massie is the only member of Congress who consistently opposes the ongoing wars in both Gaza and Ukraine. Shortly after the October 7 terrorist attack, Massie was the sole Republican congressman to vote against House Resolution 771, which “[reaffirmed] the United States’ commitment to Israel’s security,” “[urged] full enforcement of United States sanctions against Iran,” and declared that the U.S. “stands ready to assist Israel with emergency resupply and other security, diplomatic, and intelligence support.”

In November 2023, he voted against House Resolution 6126, which provided Israel with $14.5 billion in military aid. In April 2024, he opposed House Resolutions 8034 and 8035, which allocated $95 billion in foreign aid to Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and other Indo-Pacific allies. (Donald Trump declined to oppose that package, all but assuring its passage.) In January 2025, Massie voted present on the Illegitimate Court Counteraction Act, which would impose sanctions against any person who aids the International Criminal Court in its efforts to “investigate, arrest, detail, or prosecute” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant.

Massie is keenly aware of the enormous power that the Israel lobby wields on Capitol Hill, and unlike other congressional Republicans, he is willing to publicly acknowledge the extent of its influence. During an interview with Tucker Carlson in June 2024, he noted that the American Israel Public Affairs Committee assigns handlers to every House Republican, dispatching them to influence how lawmakers vote. The previous month, the United Democracy Project, a super PAC affiliated with AIPAC, spent at least $300,000 on TV ads tying Massie to Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah. Their efforts were in vain, as Massie won his primary with three-quarters of the vote.

Whether or not Massie can win a Senate primary remains to be seen. The only Republican candidate to have formally entered the race at this point is former Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron, a McConnell protégé who lost the 2023 gubernatorial election. Cameron is already trying to distance himself from McConnell; he recently criticized the former leader of the Senate Republican Conference for opposing the confirmations of Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and he even signaled his opposition to further aid to Ukraine. But in November 2023, shortly after losing his bid for governor, Cameron joined twenty-five other Republicans attorneys general in signing a letter urging Joe Biden and congressional leaders to provide “military resources, intelligence, and humanitarian assistance to Israel as she defends herself against those seeking her destruction.”

Congressman Andy Barr may also launch a bid for McConnell’s Senate seat. Barr believes that “enemies of Israel are enemies of the United States.” Just last month, he declared that he “[stands] fully with Israel in its mission to wipe every last Hamas terrorist off the face of the earth.” Given that AIPAC was the top contributor to his campaign committee in 2024, Barr’s commitment to the Israeli cause is perfectly understandable.

If he runs, Massie would be sure to receive an endorsement from Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, who has unfortunately proven incredibly disappointing on the Gaza front. In November, Paul voted against three resolutions intended to block $20 billion in weapons sales to Israel. In January, he backed the ICC sanctions bill.

But a Donald Trump endorsement will no doubt prove to be the most important variable in shaping the outcome of the race. While Massie’s decision to endorse Ron DeSantis during the 2024 Republican presidential primaries may have hurt his standing with Trump, it is worth remembering that Trump offered former critic and one-time Evan McMullin supporter J.D. Vance his endorsement during the 2022 Ohio Senate primary. And the rest is history.

In December 2023, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer accused Massie of anti-Semitism after he shared a meme correctly noting that Congress is more interested in Zionism than American patriotism. Expect more attacks like those, this time from pro-Israel Republicans, should the seven-term congressman enter the race to succeed McConnell. Despite those challenges, there is no doubt that a Thomas Massie Senate campaign has the potential to steer U.S. foreign policy in a less insane direction.