Wars don't usually start with someone deciding to unleash chaos. They start with confidence—a belief that risks are manageable, responses predictable, consequences containable. History tells a different story. The most destructive conflicts emerge not from clear intent but from quiet assurance that this time will be different. Today's danger isn't a conscious rush toward war. It's the growing faith in strategic assumptions that underestimate how quickly force escapes control. Policymakers convince themselves escalation can be calibrated, that pressure can be applied without triggering...