Mike Swanson | The Libertarian Institute

We Are Still Undergoing A Massive Stock Market Cycle Shift

by Mike Swanson | Feb 26, 2019 | Economics, Featured Articles

Going into the end of last year and at the start of this year I released a series of videos in which I said that the stock market weakness last year and gyrations across multiple financial markets represented a major stock market cycle shift that would lead to a very nasty bear market. The stock market rally that began the day after Christmas has not changed my view on this, because we are seeing new leadership sectors emerge inside the stock market while past leaders continue to falter. If you want to beat the market you MUST focus on this reality I know everyone is obsessed now with the...

The Federal Reserve And The Price Of Gold In 2019 – Mike Swanson

by Mike Swanson | Jan 30, 2019 | Blog

Today Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve is holding an FOMC meeting and before the meeting the members are talking among themselves about ending their QT bond program. This all represents the end of the tightening cycle and is helping to put in a top in the US dollar index on the technical analysis charts and is an attempt to stop any future stock market drops. I did a video to talk about this you can watch here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elWHKLmzG1w

Stock Market Predictions For 2019 (What Analysts Say And What The Market Is Telling Us)

by Mike Swanson | Jan 1, 2019 | Blog

We saw some wild stock market swings in the last three months of last year. Some say these are just “buy the dip” opportunities while others see the rally at the end of the year as a dead cat bounce on the technical analysis charts. The Wall Street analysts are all bullish on the market for 2019. That is their predictions. In this video I give my take on why we should be very cautious to just grab on to such predictions.

Here Is Why The Stock Market Is Really Dropping

by Mike Swanson | Dec 26, 2018 | Blog

The stock market has been going up and down wildly for months, actually more down than up on the technical analysis charts. This is hurting stock traders and stock market investors. The other week the Federal Reserve raised rates and the market fell more so the focus the past few days has been on that news, but more is actually going on. I believe we are at the end of the stock market bull market cycle and that means we are also at the end of this economic cycle too as I explain here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ymyw5MY-49A

It Is Time To Prepare For Even Bigger Stock Market Declines In 2019 – Mike Swanson (12/09/2018)

by Mike Swanson | Dec 10, 2018 | Economics, Featured Articles

The stock market has been trading in a much more volatile manner with daily moves in the technical analysis charts of a magnitude not seen in years. This is part of a topping process. Markets move in cycles and the odds of a bear market coming in 2019 are higher now than they have been in ten years. I explain some of the reasons why in this video. Recent changes in the bond market and Fed member statements show that we are at the end of an economic expansionary cycle. Read the rest at wallstreetwindow.com.

This Chart Shows Where We Are In The Financial Cycle

by Mike Swanson | Jun 25, 2018 | Blog

The yield curve is flattening and that means that we are late in this economic and stock market cycle. The yield curve flattens when the short-term rates get closer to the long-term rates and can actually get inverted if short-term rates go higher than the long-term rates. For instance if the two year Treasury bond is paying 3% and the ten year bond is paying 2% you have an inverted yield curve. The Fed controls the short-term rates much more than it does long-term rates so this happens when traders buy the long-term bonds in anticipation of the Fed eventually lowering rates. A flattening...

Markets Reaction To FOMC Decision Muted, But Watch Silver (Plus Job Numbers Reality)

by Mike Swanson | Jun 14, 2018 | Blog

Yesterday the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and projected two more rate hikes by year-end. The stock market's reaction was muted, but silver and gold firmed up after the news and are ticking up this morning. At some point, the FOMC is going to pause on its interest rate hikes as we are approaching the end of this fight tightening cycle. I talked with Jim Goddard about this and what it means for all markets in this interview: The coming Fed rate hike pause will come once it manages to hike two or three more times or if the stock market dips ten percent first. And that announcement is...

Is Today Going To Be The Day That Jerome Powell Brings A Dovish Surprise? – Mike Swanson

by Mike Swanson | Jun 13, 2018 | Economics, Featured Articles

Most Federal Reserve meetings are not surprises. We know and have known for months that the Fed is going to raise interest rates today and will likely do so again in September. There is talk that the Fed may do another rate hike in December or it may not. That question has been the focus of the financial news this week. At the last meeting, the Federal Reserve was predicting two more rate hikes, but there is talk that they should up that to three more (meaning an additional hike in December), because of higher energy prices and low unemployment numbers. However, Fed Fund futures this morning...