Chalk up another crafty Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) to the Russian military.
I am hoping the West has noticed the game changer that a conventional warhead on hyper-sonic IRBMs and ICBMs has changed the balance of power in near peer and peer combat for the remainder of this century as exemplified by the Oreshnik attacks by the Russians.
This is a strategic decapitation weapons system that makes exquisite platforms like aircraft carriers and static land bases eminently targetable with no hope of defending against the incoming warheads.
Germany is too far gone to catch up and they have traditionally been the bleeding edge of any military innovations in the EU.
Unless an uncharacteristic miracle takes place in the US procurement and acquisition system, the US and the West is years behind. There is a slight chance a crash program to convert half of the current Minuteman III armory to conventional warheads which could fast-track the game changer but the arthritic and sclerotic history of American arms in the last half century turning on a dime to fight a future war instead of the last war is slim.
Germany’s inability to increase innovation and production is emblematic of the entire West.
Take a listen to my latest WarNotes Episode 005 where I discuss nuclear weapons in the 21st century published this morning.
Kiel Institute Report:
War is back in Europe and as it becomes long-lasting, the question of armament gains central importance. This report finds that Russian military industrial capacities have been rising strongly in the last two years, well beyond the levels of Russian material losses in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the build-up of German capacities is progressing slowly. We document Germany’s military procurement in a new Kiel Military Procurement Tracker and find that Germany did not meaningfully increase procurement in the one and a half years after February 2022, and only accelerated it in late 2023. Given Germany’s massive disarmament in the last decades and the current procurement speed, we find that for some key weapon systems, Germany will not attain 2004 levels of armament for about 100 years. When taking into account arms commitments to Ukraine, some German capacities are even falling. The new Tracker provides detailed information on quantities, value of the orders, predicted delivery dates, as well as the companies from which Germany procures. The situation of slow and insufficient procurement can and needs to be remedied. Failing on deterrence would mean a higher likelihood of a costly war. Instead of Germany pursuing a “war economy”, as some have argued, Germany’s defence budget needs to durably and credibly increase. Higher and credible long-term demand will lead to increasing supply capacities. A long-term European armament strategy is needed. Germany and Europe need to focus on speed in procurement, on cost effectiveness through economies of scale in an integrated European market, on innovation, and on technological superiority. Tracking military rearmament is essential to the security of the continent.
Fit for war in decades: Europe’s and Germany’s slow rearmament vis-a-vis Russia
You are living in historic times.
I urge you to watch the short video below.
HT to Millinneum 7:
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