Trend-lines on military aviation accidents are edging upwards to rival in the commercial aviation industry in mishaps. Not only is this a barometer for readiness and training but an indicator for the emerging competency crisis plaguing the West. Peacetime military aviation is dangerous.

As of 9 April 2024, the Marine Corps sustained a sharp increase in Class A mishaps for the first and second quarters of 2024 with a rate of 4.31 per 100,000 flight hours, compared to a 10-year average of 2.24.

There is a pretty good article that gives a fair overview of this brewing crisis here.

Let’s examine the Army: here’s what is alarming, we are a little over half way in this fiscal year (FY) and the accident rate for FY24 is edging toward three times the previous year and that trend will go up more as the year progresses. Class A involves a fatality and Class B and C includes injury but not fatality. This is the Army and doesn’t includes troubling upticks in aviation accidents in the other services.

Flightfax, the online newsletter of the Army Aviation Accident Prevention program, covers the ongoing accidents and mishaps of Army rotary wing aircraft (rare instances of fixed wing but the majority of Army aviation is rotary wing thanks to the Key West Agreement in 1948).

It appears, this crisis will simply deepen.

Classification of mishaps:

Here’s a snapshot of of comparisons between 2023 and 2024 for incidents per 100k flight hours:

Here’s a snapshot of one month from the April 2024 edition: