institute newspaper logo sized

Blog

Icebreaker Follies: The US Continues to Drive to Zero

by | Aug 13, 2024 |

coast guard cutter healy escorts russian tanker to nome

The Navy did have 1.5 icebreakers and now they have half of one.

Well, actually, the US has no operational icebreakers now.

The Coast Guard’s other icebreaker, the ancient heavy Polar Star, is undergoing a service life extension program at the Mare Island Dry Dock in California [H/T to Q Captain].

The fire reportedly damaged a starboard transformer as a result of which the starboard engine remains inoperable. 

The Coast Guard’s other icebreaker, the 50-year old Polar Star, is not available during summer as it is undergoing a service life extension program at the Mare Island Dry Dock in California.

Healy departed from Seattle for its summer Arctic patrol on June 12, 2024 taking it through the Bering Strait into the Chukchi Sea. It was traveling in Canadian waters near Banks Island around July 25 when it experienced an engineering space fire. 

The sequence of events was broadly confirmed around two weeks later on August 7 by Vice Commandant of the Coast Guard Admiral Kevin E. Lunday during a talk at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC.

“Coast Guard Cutter Healy, one of our only two icebreakers, had just begun her summer patrol and was up north of Alaska and the Chukchi Sea. It had an electrical fire in the engineering spaces; she’s now having to return to home port to try and affect repairs.”

There’s a whisper the US is building new icebreakers with Canada and Finland but we shall see what transpires.

Leaders from the US, Canada and Finland formed the Icebreaker Collaboration Effort (ICE Pact) on 11 July to collaborate on strengthening shipbuilding in the three nations, and their security and economic ties.

The three governments plan to construct icebreakers and other Arctic support vessels, collaborate on workforce development and exchange information. They also hope other nations will order icebreakers from shipyards in US, Canada and Finland to support the capital intensity of multi-ship construction.

The plan is to develop a memorandum of understanding from this initial ICE Pact by the end of 2024 and form a framework of how this collaboration will work in practice.

The Russians have the largest icebreaker fleet on Earth and decades of port and living facilities along more than 50% of the Arctic Circle. They have even commissioned a combat icebreaker. The Russian icebreaker fleet consists of 41 icebreakers, including 34 diesel and 7 nuclear powered. The fleet’s total shaft power reached 697.2 MW, according to Ministry of Transport .

The vessel, constructed at the Admiralty Shipyards in St Petersburg, was initially scheduled for commissioning in 2023 but has faced delays, partly due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, The War Zone report said.

The Ivan Papanin’s armament includes an AK-176MA 76mm gun and can be fitted with containerized launchers for Klub and Kalibr cruise missiles, which would significantly enhance its combat capabilities.

Russia has a growing fleet of around 40 icebreakers and ice-capable ships, including the unique Project 23550 class specifically designed for combat and breaking through ice up to 5.5 feet thick.

Russia’s new combat icebreaker built for Arctic dominance

My Substack

Email me at cgpodcast@pm.me.

Boeing Incompetence Continues: The Space Launch System Debacle

by | Aug 12, 2024 |

boeingdisaster

We all know what is happening now with the Boeing disaster in space where two astronauts are marooned and the billion dollar taxicab is not only malfunctioning but can’t be undocked without a human inside piloting the capsule away.

Boeing was contracted by Never Ascend to Space Again (NASA) to develop a new upper stage for the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket and it’s seven years behind schedule and significantly over budget.

The new Exploration Upper Stage, a more powerful second stage for the SLS rocket that made its debut in late 2022, is viewed by NASA as a key piece of its Artemis program to return humans to the Moon. The current plan calls for the use of this new upper stage beginning with the second lunar landing, the Artemis IV mission, currently scheduled for 2028. In NASA parlance, the upgraded version of the SLS rocket is known as Block 1B.

As for the upper stage itself, NASA initially predicted development costs would be $962 million back in 2017. However, the new report predicts that the Exploration Upper Stage will actually cost $2.8 billion, or three times the original cost estimate. (For what it is worth, Ars used a simple estimating tool in 2019 to predict the Exploration Upper Stage development cost would be $2.5 billion. So it’s not like it was a huge secret that NASA and Boeing would blow out the budget here).

screenshot 2024 08 12 at 08 12 35 a new report finds boeing’s rockets are built with an unqualified work force ars technica

Of course.

https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/a-new-report-finds-boeings-rockets-are-built-with-an-unqualified-work-force/

And then you read the NASA Inspector General report.

Oh boy.

We project SLS Block 1B costs will reach approximately $5.7 billion before the system is scheduled to launch in 2028. This is $700 million more than NASA’s 2023 Agency Baseline Commitment, which established a cost and schedule baseline at nearly $5 billion. EUS development accounts for more than half of this cost, which we estimate will increase from an initial cost of $962 million in 2017 to nearly $2.8 billion through 2028. Boeing’s delivery of the EUS to NASA has also been delayed from February 2021 to April 2027, and when combined with other factors, suggests the September 2028 Artemis IV launch date could be delayed as well. Factors contributing to these cost increases and schedule delays include redirection of EUS funds to the core stage during Artemis I production, changing Artemis mission assignments, maintaining an extended workforce 7 years more than planned, manufacturing issues, and supply chain challenges.

A delay of seven years and a tripling of costs for a system that if the track record is any indication will not be on time and will be more than that.

In December 2023, the SLS Program completed its Block 1B ABC after 10 years of development with no baseline and much later in the project life cycle than NASA’s standard practice.

Ten years with no baseline. You can’t make this up.

The government needs to completely reassess why it enters into any contracts with Boeing. They should be banned from any Federal programs now and in the future.

My Substack

Email me at cgpodcast@pm.me.

Anti-War Blog – Just a Meme of Their Time

Anti-War Blog – Just a Meme of Their Time

by | Aug 11, 2024 |

So much to watch, to scroll past. To ignore. Apparently life is so busy, too much going on to care. The need to escape is paramount, to avoid reality. A reality many claim to be normal. Important even. A woman uses her degree to move about on the Olympic stage, elite competitive break dancing we are told. She is now the current meme. Two boxers outshine all of the the others boxing at the Games, “what gender are they?” The question is screamed and hate thrown about by those who never watch boxing, let alone women’s boxing. But, they care for now, outrage! In that time of outcry, 100 were murdered in one day. Many more to follow. Many more before. The US also sent 28,000 bombs so that more kids may be blown to bits. But I am sure that Raygun is stunning and brave, or cringe. I just don’t care. Why do you?

The UK is now banning memes, that may also include articles, blogs, posts, tangents that go against the allowable opinion. Whatever the State decides one may express and witness. Perhaps reporting on genocide will become illegal? Who reads those reports anyhow and if they do, is there ever more than an, “Oh dear.” In the time of Covid that would have meant questions asked that then were wrongthink but are now allowed to be expressed. What can be asked, what is allowed to be said, what information is to be denied, what may be shared? Whatever any given regime decides, from moment to moment. It seems that the other English speaking nations of the Commonwealth may follow suit. God Save the King! The Orwellian example too obvious to bring up. Fiction does come from reality though, even before Orwell’s time.

Men scream, “I have the right to rape!” outside a prison. In support of those who did rape, violently sodomising inmates. Many seem to agree. History has proven them correct. It seems that some do have such a right. Now at least with vulgar entitlement they scream it with tears of pre-cum in their eyes. The State endorses it. An individual has no rights to their body anyhow, it belongs to the State, what they may or may not ingest, what medication they may access, even the sports they play all dictated by the State so it makes sense that government agents will sodomise men as State policy. It worked for the NKVD, so why not them? In the distance, past the memes and screams for rape, babies starve to death or are blown to bits. Policy.

When men who worshipped the prince of peace conquered the New World, they raped, murdered, enslaved and tortured. We are told by rationale minds that they were men of their time. That the natives were also wicked, and did bad things too. Though in their time mothers cried when their babies died, girls wept after being stabbed from a man’s penis, brothers died fighting them off and fathers broke down when their families were murdered before their eyes. They were people of their time as well. In generations from now, we will have scholars looking back, maybe through memes, reasoning that the current genocide was being committed by people of their time. They would be correct.

This is what civilisations do. Murder, conquer, destroy, bloat their society with debt, engorged with public servants, drowned in paperwork and the people addictedto welfare. Then crumble until a new one comes along. Monuments will be built over unmarked graves, built by those who will be long forgotten, too poor to not build such public work celebrations. The unimportant labour needed to immortalise the important so adored. Indentured as the Irish once were in the Commonwealth, just as a Kenyan may be now in a wealthy Gulf State. Those pretty high rises look lovely on the instagram though. Progress we are told. So that those with the right passports by shop and sight see, as those with their passports taken die to build.

The Congo dies, poisoned. So that you can read this. I have the right to rape! That is the spoken out loud words of the entitled, the privileged. We may discriminate what we spend our time on, though apparently we are far too busy to care. From societies so gorged that weight loss and diabetic amputation is a problem, while babies die from dysentery. Both illnesses so fixable, yet the governments impose embargoes so that more children die. While others are born to simply eat. The starvation embargoes punish who? Well fed warlords and public servants?

And you may ask, ‘what can I do about it?’ Ignoring that most who love government worship the religion of democracy, yet never seem to take any responsibility. The meme outrage comes from millions of individuals the world over. The image of a crushed baby is squashed beneath the memes of a breakdancer with Chris Lilley audio over it. The march to war between nuclear armed belligerents is blown aside by the concern over a sport that most never even cared about before. Women’s boxing wish it had as many fans as the likes and share mob have spewed across the screens. I suppose we know what you do really care about and that makes you just another person of your time.

August, 2024

Analysis of the ICJ’s Ruling that Israel’s Occupation Is Illegal

Analysis of the ICJ’s Ruling that Israel’s Occupation Is Illegal

by | Aug 8, 2024 |

I joined Libertarian Institute Director Scott Horton on his show to discuss the International Court of Justice’s recent ruling that Israel’s persistent occupation of Palestinian territory for 57 years now violates international law and must end immediately.

I had explained the context and summarized the ICJ’s judgment in my July 20 article, “ICJ Declares Israel’s Occupation Illegal”, which is a great short primer to read before listening to this episode of Scott’s show.

During our conversation, we delved into numerous aspects of the ruling in considerably greater detail, and we also discussed numerous points that I didn’t raise the article, so be sure to listen!

Bullet-Point Summary

Here are specific points we discussed about the significance of the ICJ’s ruling:

  • Why we can recognize the importance of the ICJ’s ruling and application of international law despite opposing statehood itself and the corrupt global order, and notwithstanding how the United Nations (UN) itself played a major role in creating the conflict in the first place (as documented in detail in Obstacle to Peace).
  • How the ICJ’s ruling essentially repudiates the entire framework for the US-led so-called “peace process”.
  • Why the ICJ rejected Israel’s objection that the court has no jurisdiction on the grounds that the conflict is a bilateral dispute between Israelis and Palestinians and doesn’t involve the international community.
  • How the ICJ’s new ruling goes beyond its 2004 ruling that the settlement regime and the annexation wall Israel was constructing in the West Bank were illegal.
  • How Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories began in 1967, and how Israel’s unilateral and invalid interpretation of UN Security Council Resolution 242 calling on Israel to withdraw was accepted by the US as the framework for the “peace process”.
  • How the two-state solution is premised on the applicability of international law to the conflict, whereas the “peace process” was premised on a rejection of the applicability of international law.
  • How Israel has perpetually violated UN Security Council resolutions in contravention to its obligations as a member of the organization.
  • How the ICJ detailed Israel’s numerous violations of international law with many varied aspects of its occupation and, moreover, ruled that the occupation itself is illegal and that Israel must therefore immediately end its occupation regime.
  • How people living under a belligerent occupation have a recognized right under international law to take up arms against their oppressors.
  • How the ICJ affirmed that the Palestinians’ right to self-determination is inalienable and therefore that Israel may not place conditions on their exercise of that right as it has done perpetually for over 57 years.
  • Why the ruling is significant even though the ICJ lacks any enforcement authority.
  • Why there is no government that is going to bring peace in the Middle East, it is up to us.
  • What the first step must be for us to bring the conflict to an end.
  • How the ICJ ruling really reflects the will of the international community, which is unfortunately limited in its ability to bring the conflict to an end by the whole framework the UN organization, where the US habitually uses its veto power in the Security Council to protect Israel from international censure and accountability for its crimes against the Palestinians.
  • How US government officials could be prosecuted by the International Criminal Court (ICC), a separate non-UN entity, for their complicity in supporting Israel’s violations of Palestinians’ human rights, including Israel’s ongoing genocide in Gaza.
  • Why the action of moving the US government’s Israel embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem under the administration of President Donald Trump violated international law.
  • How Trump’s killing of the so-called “peace process” was actually a good thing, despite his malevolent intentions toward the Palestinians.
  • How public opposition to Israel’s genocide has at least placed a certain level of restraint on the Biden administration’s support for this crime against humanity, indicating the importance of solving this conflict from the bottom up: again, it is up to us.
  • How the ICJ also implicitly affirmed that Israel’s discriminatory policies with its occupation regime constitute the crime of apartheid.
  • How it isn’t true that Arab citizens of Israel have equal rights.
  • Why it is so utterly perverse and delusional to describe the state of Israel as a “democracy”.
  • How the Palestine Mandate violated the League of Nations’ own charter.
  • How Christian Zionism is the elephant in the room in terms of explaining the US policy of supporting Israel’s systematic violation of Palestinians’ fundamental human rights.

If you find our discussion informative, please consider supporting the Libertarian Institute!

Doubling Down on Failure: Ford Fiasco Follies

by | Aug 8, 2024 |

xr:d:dafh8gn6tqc:21,j:3975420477,t:23050409

A new updated CRS report dated 5 August 2024 is out on the USS Ford debacle.

I read these reports so you don’t have to.

For plenty of reasons, the carrier is the crossbow and chariot of the 21st century. Yet the US insists on spending tens of billions of dollars on these obsolete and antiquated exquisite platforms that are more vulnerable now than ship at sea in the history of mankind.

Of course, the US is building five of these proven failures. Let’s do easy math and suspend our disbelief and price these colossal strategic blunders at 20 billion each for procurement but inflation and projections of the last ship rolling into the ocean in FY2030 will surely stretch that number north.

20 billion times five equals 100 billion dollars. That’s just to buy the ship and if the Ford is any indicator, many hundreds of millions will have to be allotted to fix what is, in the end, a severely flawed ship design embracing a mid twentieth century concept that is now a military anachronism.

Here’s the procurement breakdown:

CVN-78 (Gerald R. Ford) was procured in FY2008. The ship was commissioned into service on July 22, 2017, and achieved initial operational capability in December 2021. The ship’s first deployment began in October 2022, more than five years after the ship was commissioned into service.

CVN-79 (John F. Kennedy) was procured in FY2013. The Navy’s FY2025 budget submission states that the ship is scheduled for delivery in July 2025.

CVN-80 (Enterprise) was procured in FY2018. On April 2, 2024, the Navy announced delays in the scheduled deliveries of several of its shipbuilding programs, including CVN-80, whose delivery, the Navy stated, will be delayed approximately 18 to 26 months. The Navy’s FY2025 budget submission, which was submitted to Congress in March 2024, shows the ship’s scheduled
delivery date as September 2029, or 18 months later than the March 2028 date shown in the Navy’s FY2024 budget submission, which was submitted to Congress in March 2023.

CVN-81 (Doris Miller) is treated in this report as a ship that was procured in FY2019, consistent with congressional action on the Navy’s FY2019 budget. (The Navy’s FY2025 budget submission, like its FY2021-FY2024 submissions, shows CVN-81 as a ship that was procured in FY2020.) The ship is scheduled for delivery to the Navy in February 2032.

CVN-82, as noted above, is programmed for procurement in FY2030 under the Navy’s FY2025 budget submission. Procuring CVN-82 two years earlier, in FY2028, could involve providing roughly $550 million in AP funding for the ship in FY2025.

CVN-80 and CVN-81 were procured under a two-ship block buy contract that was authorized by Section 121(a)(2) of the John S. McCain National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2019 (H.R. 5515/P.L. 115-232 of August 13, 2018). The use of the two-ship block buy contract reduced the combined estimated procurement cost of the two ships.

You will also note that it took five years after being commissioned before it was deployed.

Five years.

And they certified its deployment status without completing the necessary cyber survivability tests nor the usual shock testing of the Total Ship Survivability Trial (TSST):

The CVN 78 Total Ship Survivability Trial (TSST) has been delayed by approximately one year, until 4QFY24 [fourth quarter of FY2024], due to the ship’s deployment being earlier than planned. The TSST is an onboard, extensive damage-control test to demonstrate how the ship design enables the crew to perform its recoverability-related procedures. For the CVN 78 TSST to be adequate, the testing will require at-sea execution with participation of an embarked air wing. Planning is ongoing to ensure that this adequacy requirement is met.

In 1QFY24, the Navy intends to publish two vulnerability assessment reports (VARs) examining the class’s survivability against above-water and underwater kinetic threats. These reports will include findings from survivability testing and modeling of the ship conducted since 2007. However, these reports as drafted do not accurately model the ship as built and do not include findings from more recent testing. Without updating the models, the analysis in the VARs will not support conclusions on the survivability of the CVN 78 class against threat weapons. The Navy intends to issue a final survivability assessment report that will include the findings from recent testing and update model-based survivability analysis by 4QFY25. If the survivability modeling and simulation (M&S) is updated to accurately model the ship as built, this assessment will support DOT&E’s report on the survivability of the class against threat weapons.

Please note, they deployed a new carrier with an embarked air wing in operational status in 2022 and has not completed its survivability tests which it claims will be the last quarter of 2025, three years after deployment. This is like a new car on the market that has not been safety tested and certified but declared safe and road-worthy.

Despite alleged cost caps for the Ford at 11.5 billion it has quickly exceeded that to balloon to 20 billion plus when all is said and done. Are these the teething pains of a new class of exquisite platform costs, that is possible but the history shows the costs continue to rise upwards. An analyst with more time than me can look at all the promises since 2008 of how much the Ford carrier will cost and consistently underestimate the true cost.

One final note, an aircraft carrier has one job: launch and retrieve aircraft otherwise it is useless. The Electromagnetic Aerial Launch System (EMALS) has been a reliability disaster, to wit.

During FY23, DOT&E observed EMALS reliability remained consistent with recent developmental test (460 mean cycles between operational mission failures (MCBOMF) in FY21 and 614 MCBOMF in FY22).

In order to leave the deck with a naval jet aircraft, the combination of full military power and the catapult assigns the necessary physical loft to get it off the deck and airborne. The failure of the EMALS puts that aviator in the hazard for not getting the loft and ditching the aircraft in the sea (hence the offset of the launch deck so the ship steaming forward doesn’t run over the plane in the drink). That means in combat with sortie generation (number of planes cycled aloft), that is a number that will be on the minds of every naval aviator queued up to be rocketed off the deck.

Withe the nearly century-old steam catapult technology used on all carrier classes before the Ford, the MCBOMF was approx 1:35,000.

I urge you to read the report.

Stop building these things!

Navy Ford (CVN-78) Class Aircraft Carrier Program: Background and Issues for Congress 5 August 2024

My Substack

Email me at cgpodcast@pm.me.

The Case for Not Voting

The Case for Not Voting

by | Aug 7, 2024 |

I recently joined Bretigne Shaffer again on her show, this time to discuss not who Americans should vote for but whether they should vote. We made the case that the most socially responsible course of action is to not vote.

It was a great discussion, and whatever your thoughts on voting, I am certain that you will find it intellectually stimulating; and even if Bretigne and I don’t manage to persuade you to our view, you will at least have some serious food for thought. If you aim to vote, I challenge you to consider this other point of view that you will never be exposed to by the mainstream media!

Listen below, or watch the full video version of the interview on Bretigne’s Substack.

Highlights

How we don’t have a legitimate government but a criminal organization in Washington, DC:

read more…

The Royal Navy Submarine Force Remains Surfaced

by | Aug 7, 2024 |

faslane

The Royal Navy is experiencing readiness and maintenance shortfalls in its submarine force that is similar to the throughput problems for the US nuclear submarine forces. The logistical tail for exquisite platforms like nuclear submarines is enormous and a first world nation is the only entity capable of deploying these boats. The Royal Navy is not up to the task.

Here is my forecast: the Royal Navy will never be a blue water fleet action war machine again for the remainder of this century (if the UK lasts that long). Especially when you take the one third rule into account for peacetime navies which means that one third are in operational status, one third in maintenance and one third in training.

In wartime, one may see increased deployments but those will be offset by losses.

You will see a complete reassessment of surface navy efficacy in the next generation that will be driven by a demand to completely adapt to new unmanned and hyper-sonic realities that existentially threaten current naval thinking for surface warfare.

screenshot 2024 08 06 at 09 47 37 the royal navy size and strength over time in visuals

This graphic is from 2017 and if any readers have an updated list of RN surface ships, I am obliged if you send it to me. As of 2023, the Royal Navy had 80 vessels, including warships and non-commissioned vessels. 29% are in refit or maintenance or some type of inactive status.

ALL six hunter-killer subs are stuck in port as the Royal Navy has no working docks for repairs (presently).

The nuclear-powered vessels are designed to hunt Russian subs, spy on Britain’s enemies and deliver special forces on secret missions.

But none of the Astute-class subs — the fleet’s newest — have conducted a single operational voyage this year.

HMS Ambush has not sailed for two years.

HMS Audacious has spent 15 months in His Majesty’s Naval Base Devonport.

The mess is worse than you think.

HMS Artful has been 14 months at HMNB Clyde, where HMS Astute has been since December.

A ship-lift to crane subs out of the water at Faslane has been out of action for over a year after the firm that made the ropes closed down, and the Navy couldn’t replace them.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/29679184/six-british-hunter-killer-subs-stuck-in-port/

My Substack

Email me at cgpodcast@pm.me.

The F35 Follies: Britannia Rules a Little

by | Aug 6, 2024 |

SF_F-35B Racing By Trailing Vapes_JAKMy recommendation to the British MoD: don’t buy anymore of these flying failure factories.

U.K. planned to buy138 F-35s, bought 48, delivered 35, aims at 75 by 2025.

Judging from the delays and failures universally in the program, achieving a delivery of all functional fighters is probably a pipe dream. Since the readiness rate for the F35B (carrier-borne) in US hands is below 20 percent, one can imagine the the British will not be able to keep that percentage aloft. Do the math and single digits of these aircraft still functional in five years is not a sure bet.

Not to mention the two new massive oil-fired 65,000-ton Queen Elizabeth-class carriers can’t safely navigate beyond the shores of England without a catastrophic engine casualty. They may become very expensive aircraft ferries to tour the circumference of the UK.

The Royal Navy is a shadow of its former majesty and there is simply no future for a blue-water armada under the Union Jack for the remainder of this century, if England lasts that long since London is a first world city in a third world country.

The extinction of British steel on the alter of the green religion will play a role in this demise that will roll well into the future.

Former Trotskyist Keir Starmer is the new PM of the rickety old England and the new UK Labor government is reviewing military spending and is unclear on F-35B fate. The UK is also the only country to solely purchase the naval F-35B S/VTOL variant of the fighter for both its navy and air force.

For a long time, the stated goal of the UK was to purchase 138 F-35s, but later, the government seemed to grow cold on that number and seemed to want to reduce it. However, with the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the UK affirmed its plan to eventually purchase 138 F-35s.

While Labour may adjust the number of F-35Bs to be procured, it is highly unlikely to cancel the F-35 program. The new government will undoubtedly adjust Britain’s military procurement, but it is unclear at this point what those adjustments will be. Labour has committed itself to increasing military expenditure to 2.5% of GDP “as soon as they can” (up from around 2.1% now).

Labour also claims the previous government “failed on defense” and that under the Torys, “200 aircraft have been taken out of service in the last five years alone.” It is possible Labour will increase the number of fighter jets to be purchased – time will tell.

https://simpleflying.com/what-to-know-britains-f-35-lightning-ii-program/

My Substack

Email me at cgpodcast@pm.me

 

Podcasts

scotthortonshow logosq

coi banner sq2@0.5x

liberty weekly thumbnail

Don't Tread on Anyone Logo

313x0w (1)

313x0w (1)

313x0w (1)

Pin It on Pinterest