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War At Dusk?

by | Jan 8, 2020

Trump’s emergency war cabinet meeting after the Iranian rocket attack was strangely anti-climatic.  Trump has engaged in non-substantive, face-saving military actions in the past, so maybe this is more of the same?  Iran and Trump playing an escalation game to its limits, but neither really having the balls to risk a real thing?  I hope that’s it.

Somehow, however, I wonder if this is the “calm before the storm.”  Usually, Trump obscures empty gestures with big rhetoric.  His rhetoric tonight is oddly measured.

There’s a real possibility that each side here is buying time and keeping a weak face while hard assets are positioned.  The fate of American hegemony could be at stake.  If Hormuz is closed for a short amount of time and the region can’t be stabilized or reoccupied any time soon, the fragile US economy could pop.  All you need is a week or two of wealth flowing from one set of assets into another, causing the pressure of the plumbing to drop, and the pipes to all collapse.  A sustained flight from stocks into gold, or something like that.  Long enough to break the machinery keeping the fake economy afloat.

There are rumors of Germany fleeing NATO’s boot to Putin’s Eurasian arms.  There are even rumors of Israel buddying up to China.  This is all hyperbolic, even unrealistic, but the point is that the current situation’s optics are as strategically important as anything else.  One or the other narrative will become “history” as the players in the middle pick their ultimate sides, and one side wins.

Both sides will claim the desire to avoid war until one or the other side makes the war happen.  Iran’s strategy would be simply to bait idiot Trump into an arrogant move which will surely punish Iran immensely, but be the perfect excuse to cripple the dying US empire.  A Shia “Samson option”.  Remember how happy Bin Laden was that Bush was elected?  Islam is a culture with a perceived historic destiny, and they think in terms of historic trends.  If there’s a war I think this will be the bad one.

Horrifically, I think Trump’s cabinet could have already picked the time of attack – which always starts just after dusk for tactical advantage.  It’s morning now in Iran, and Washington, D.C. is sleeping. Dawn was just breaking over there when Trump’s war council convened, and a public address was tentatively announced.  Then Trump delayed his big speech until his next morning.  What if they realized that the attack would have to wait about 10 hours before beginning?  What if the last words of the war council were, “Well, everyone go and get some sleep, it will be the last time anyone around here will be getting sleep any time soon.”

The speech has to start after the attack is well underway.

This may be the most plausible explanation of the admin’s odd silence.

Or, maybe they realized how badly they messed up and are finally playing it cool.  And we can get back to impeachment and Biden gaffes.

I hope by the time y’all in the states wake up we’ll all know that the situation has blown over.  I hope by the time most of you read this blogpost, it will already be irrelevant.  I hope.

 

About Zack Sorenson

Zachary Sorenson worked for the United States Air Force for six years as a Navigation Officer. He recently quit because of a principled opposition to war. He considers himself to be a Libertarian, and studied Economics at the University of Maryland, College Park. He would like to see the resurgence of a non-political commitment to peace for its own sake, across the spectrum of ideologies.

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