The casual observer could be forgiven for wondering how the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a Sudanese paramilitary organization notorious for atrocities in Darfur, became powerful enough to challenge the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) for control of the country when its civilian government was overthrown in 2021. Believe it or not, the answer runs through the Global War on Terror, Washington’s disastrous handling of Yemen, and Barack Obama's determination to placate Saudi Arabia. The connections might seem tenuous. They aren’t. For years Washington had cultivated a security partnership with the...

Washington is preparing for a new round of talks in the Indo-Pacific. The South China Morning Post reported on October 22 that Philippine ambassador Jose Manuel Romualdez anticipated possible meetings of the informal “Squad” security grouping ahead of regional summits in Manila. Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, would hold its first leaders’ summit in more than two years. Both developments come as President Donald Trump prepares for another meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The timing is revealing. For even as...

When Xi Jinping departed Washington at the end of September, the verdict was already plain. Another carefully choreographed encounter produced a short extension of the trade truce, a modest $30 billion reciprocal tariff arrangement on non-sensitive goods, some coal purchases, an AI dialogue, and the familiar language of “constructive strategic stability.” Ceremonial pomp, pandas, and mutual professions of personal friendship filled the space where real structural progress was absent. The outcome matched what I had advised readers to expect in the runup—namely, that the deeper frictions,...

Barely four years after the Pretoria Agreement formally ended one of the deadliest wars of the twenty-first century, large-scale fighting has returned to Ethiopia. In late September the principal anti-government force, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), seized key airports in Mekelle, Axum, and Shire, launched attacks into Afar and Amhara, and declared itself once again at war with the federal government in Addis Ababa. It did so days after joining six other armed groups in the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, which aims to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. By early...

Barely four years after the Pretoria Agreement formally ended one of the deadliest wars of the twenty-first century, serious fighting has returned to northern Ethiopia. As we begin October, Tigrayan forces have seized the airports at Mekelle, Aksum, and Shire, launched coordinated attacks into neighboring Afar and Amhara regions, and declared themselves once again in a state of full-blown war with the federal government in Addis Ababa. The Ethiopian military responded with drone strikes, artillery, and claims to have killed or captured hundreds of attackers. Flights were suspended,...

When President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Beijing this past May, the outcome was largely as anticipated: ceremonial pomp, a handful of commercial commitments, rhetorical emphasis on “stability,” and little progress on the structural frictions that actually define the relationship. Trump invited Xi for a reciprocal state visit, and that visit is now underway. Xi arrived in the Washington area on Wednesday evening for a tightly choreographed program of White House ceremonies, closed-door talks, a state dinner, and a brief National Archives tour before departing...

The 55th Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting, held in Koror, Palau, from August 31 to September 3, offered a revealing window into the limits of an increasingly ambitious external security agenda in the Pacific. The immediate subject was Australia’s expanding network of defense and security arrangements. The larger question, however, was what these arrangements mean as Washington intensifies its strategic competition with Beijing—and whether Australia is becoming an increasingly important vehicle for extending that competition into the Pacific. The Forum’s Leaders’ Communiqué and...