In an economic landscape shaped by the aggressively rising prices of 2020-2022, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy pendulum swung dramatically. Starting from rock bottom rates, it engaged in a series of hikes the likes of which had not been seen since the early 1980s, moving from less than 1% in February 2022 to over 4% a year later. Going still higher with rates above 5% by the end of 2023, the Federal Reserve held rates there for the first half of 2024 in an attempt to bring the Consumer Price Index (CPI), one of its preferred price gauges, down from the scorching 9% peak in the summer...
The (Predictable) Defeat of Moderate Reforms
In the 2024 general election, several states and cities across the country put forth initiatives aimed at adopting ranked-choice voting (RCV) and nonpartisan primaries. These measures were promoted as essential steps in reducing political polarization, creating more representative elections, and empowering independent and moderate voices. However, results showed a significant resistance to change, as most RCV initiatives failed at the statewide level, with the only notable success coming from Washington DC, which passed both open primaries and RCV. The outcome reveals substantial challenges...
Will We Witness a Fed Chair Who Believes in Gold?
Having reviewed multiple books on monetary reform over the past few years, such as Lev Menand’s The Fed Unbound: Central Banking in a Time of Crisis and Brown and Pringle’s A Guide to Good Money: Beyond the Illusions of Asset Price Inflation, I was predictably eager to see what the Independent Institute’s Judy Shelton would have to say on the topic in her new release. Her book, Good as Gold: How to Unleash the Power of Sound Money, does not disappoint. Indeed, apart from a few passages that left me scratching my head, such as a paragraph length paean to the fiscal vision of Ronald Reagan...
No Matter Who Wins, Our Wallets Are Going to Lose
Between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, there is little reason for hope as far as high prices go. Despite both campaigning on making prices lower—something patently ludicrous on its face—a look at their actual policy proposals cannot but lead the economically informed to conclude that prices are likely to surge in the coming years regardless of which statist alternative wins. Before diving into their policies, it is important to distinguish between the various factors that cause prices to rise. On the one hand, you have inflation; the devaluation of existing monetary units by the creation of...
Don’t Kid Yourself About the Ignorance of American Voters
A couple weeks back, the managing editor here at the Libertarian Institute, Keith Knight, posted on Twitter/X about voter ignorance. The post, which featured the headline “Monetary Policy by the Taylor Rule,” along with the associated equation, concluded with the comment: “What % of voters know this and can comprehend this? How long would it take to teach everyone? Democracy is a joke, privitize [sic] everything.” While voters might be forgiven for not being able to parse the arcane occult of highly mathematized macroeconomic policy—no matter their other scholastic qualifications, those...
Case Study, Taiwan: A Nation is the Story We Tell Ourselves
In his famous 1882 lecture "What is a Nation?" the French historian and philosopher Ernest Renan emphasized the role of collective memory and even fictitious or selective historical narratives in the creation and maintenance of national identity, writing "Forgetting, I would even say historical error, is a crucial factor in the creation of a nation." What Renan was arguing is that nations are built not only on shared history but also on the myths and selective memories that bind people together. This selective forgetting often involves downplaying or erasing divisive events or highlighting...
Government by Sortition
From Plato to Acton, Thomas Jefferson to Bertrand Russell, it was regarded as a truism to many great thinkers that those who desire power are the least to be trusted with it. As such, it is unsurprising that from the first experiments in representative government, sortition—election or enfranchisement by lottery—was the popular method reached for by those who sought to safeguard the state from the entrenched tyranny of those who pursued power for its own sake or to enrich themselves. Indeed, the practice of selecting political officials or decision-makers by lot has a long historical...
Don’t Oversell China’s Economic Crisis
Recent headlines regarding China’s economy have painted a grim picture. From sagging stock markets to the continuing, multidimensional real-estate crises, there is no shortage of negative news coming out of the world’s second-largest economy. Yet while these challenges are real and present significant hurdles, it would be a mistake to read too much into the current malaise. China remains a maturing economy with plenty of room for future growth. Of course, its development path will be slower and more uneven, a byproduct of its previous interventionist policies (which promise to continue), as...