In recent weeks, a flurry of unexpected talks and signals of willingness for talks have taken place that provide hope in a number of war zones. The U.S. is talking to Russia, there are openings for Russia to talk to Ukraine, Ukraine is talking to China, and China is talking to Palestine.
At the beginning of August, the United States and Russia completed a prisoner exchange. The Western media obsessed over two details. One being the fact that it was the biggest prisoner exchange between the U.S. and Russia since the end of the Cold War. And second, that there was a gaping moral inequivalence between Putin and the prisoners he got back compared with the West and the prisoners they got back.
But there are two more significant details that the Western media ignored. The first is that the U.S. and Russia have practically not talked at all since the war in Ukraine began. During the Cold War, the two sides frequently communicated. Whereas during the Ukraine war, the lines of communication have been cut.
This complicated prisoner exchange shows not only that the two sides are still capable of talking, but that they have been talking. It may be a stretch to suggest the exchange is a confidence building measure upon which negotiations regarding the war itself can be built. However, the successful prisoner negotiations undoubtedly demonstrate that, even though U.S.-Russian relations are currently at their worst, diplomacy can still work if both sides commit to it.
The second significant feature of the prisoner exchange is that it was mediated by Turkey, the same country that almost successfully mediated the sabotaged peace talks between Ukraine and Russia in the early weeks of the war. Ankara’s role suggests that, despite the collapse of those talks, the country may retain the trust of both sides, pointing to a possible negotiating path out of the war in Ukraine.
Much less reported is that the prisoner exchange is not the only time that Russia and the U.S. have talked lately. Last month, in a bizarre and unexpected occurrence, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin received a phone call from Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov. Russia had discovered a covert Ukrainian operation, and Belousov was calling Austin to warn him that the plot had the potential to escalate tensions between the U.S. and Russia. Washington was apparently unaware of the secret Ukrainian plot. Responding to Moscow’s concern, the U.S. cooperated with Russia in an act of de-escalation. The U.S. told Kiev to call it off.
Critically, it is not only the U.S. who is willing to talk to Russia. Ukraine has been showing an increasing realization of the necessity to talk with the Russian side. Ukraine has consistently excluded Russia from its peace summits. But Zelensky has now said not only that he would like to have another summit before the November U.S. election, but that he “think[s] that representatives of Russia should be at the second summit.”
That is the second time that a possible offer of an invitation to Russia has been proposed. On June 19, Zelensky’s powerful chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, said that, at the next peace summit based on Zelensky’s peace plan, “We think it will be possible to invite representative [sic] of Russia.”
Most recently, at the end of July, Zelensky said, “The majority of the world today says that Russia must be represented at the second summit, otherwise we will not achieve meaningful results. Since the whole world wants them to be at the table, we cannot be against it.”
Once again showing the motivation to talk to Russia, in an interview last month, Zelensky said, “I feel that not all territories should be regained by hand or with weapons. I believe this will take a long time and involve a significant number of people. And I think this is a bad thing. As a result, I believe we might retake our territories diplomatically.”
Ukraine is not only coming around to the necessity to talk to Russia, they are also talking to China. On July 24, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba visited China for the first time since the war began. Here again, the Ukrainian official stated that Ukraine “is ready to engage the Russian side in the negotiation process at a certain stage when Russia is ready to negotiate in good faith,” though he added that Ukraine does not yet see any sign of that. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that “Recently, both Russia and Ukraine have signaled their willingness to negotiate to varying degrees. Although the conditions and timing are not yet ripe, we support all efforts that contribute to peace.”
Wang continued, “China believes that the resolution of all conflicts must ultimately start with a return to the negotiation table” and reiterated that Beijing is willing to continue playing a role in peace talks. China has freshly claimed as well that the six-point peace plan it jointly proposed along with fellow BRICS member Brazil has received “positive responses” from more than 110 countries.
And China has not just been engaged in diplomacy with Ukraine. China has been diplomatically busy in the Middle East. In 2023, China brokered a deal that could transform the Middle East when Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to resume diplomatic relations.
And now, China has struck again in the region. On July 23, China brokered an agreement between rivals Hamas and Fatah and twelve other Palestinian factions on a “national unity” government. The parties agreed to govern the Gaza strip together once the war with Israel is over. They further agreed to declare unity during the war and establish a unified leadership that would run in the next elections.
Palestine, Saudi Arabia and Ukraine talking to China clearly represents a willingness to engage with Beijing in regions or wars that were once Washington’s exclusive domain. And all three represent a new willingness to talk to their former rivals: Fatah with Hamas, Saudi Arabia with Iran, and Ukraine with Russia.
China has also lately been engaged in one more round of surprising talks with a rival. After years of hostility along their border, China and India have agreed to “focus on specific issues related to the China-India border, accommodate each other’s legitimate concerns and reach a mutually acceptable solution.” They also agreed to “promote the healthy and stable development of China-India relations.” These unexpected and promising talks could facilitate even greater unity in the international organizations that are intended to balance U.S. hegemony in a unipolar world, BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, to which Beijing and New Delhi both belong.
All of these developments are somewhat surprising and unexpected. They show that the U.S. and Russia can engage diplomatically, that there may be hope of Ukraine engaging in diplomacy with Russia, and that China may be capable of playing a more active role in diplomacy regarding Ukraine, the Middle East and beyond.
