Not a ‘Soft Landing,’ But a Crash

Not a ‘Soft Landing,’ But a Crash

After more than a decade of chained stimulus packages and extremely low rates, with trillions of dollars of monetary stimulus fueling elevated asset valuations and incentivizing an enormous leveraged bet on risk, the idea of a controlled explosion or a “soft landing” is impossible. In an interview with Marketplace, the Federal Reserve chairman admitted that “a soft landing is really just getting back to 2 percent inflation while keeping the labor market strong. And it’s quite challenging to accomplish that right now.” He went on to say that “nonetheless, we think there are pathways…for us to...

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Sanctions Don’t Hurt Only Russia

Sanctions Don’t Hurt Only Russia

The escalation of tension in Ukraine has reminded us of something many investors seemed to have forgotten: geopolitical risk. Sanctions and the inevitable drop in trade have proven to generate a significant negative impact on the different economies involved. We know from the 2014 Ukraine crisis that the economic hit is severe and persistent. The economic hit of sanctions is undoubtedly highest for Russia. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated in 2015 that “Western sanctions and Russian countersanctions reduced Russian real gross domestic product (GDP) initially by 1–1.5% and that...

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Stagflation is Coming, Prepare Accordingly

Stagflation is Coming, Prepare Accordingly

The United States retail sales and jobless claims weakness, significantly below estimates, coincides with the largest fiscal and monetary stimulus in history. Something is not right when these figures come significantly below estimates in an environment of massive upgrades to gross domestic product (GDP). Why? The diminishing returns of stimulus plans are very evident. Artificially boosting GDP with large government spending and monetized debt generates a short-term sugar high that is rapidly followed by a sugar low. The alleged positive effects of a $1 trillion stimulus plan fade shortly...

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Joe Biden’s Fake Economic Recovery

Joe Biden’s Fake Economic Recovery

The University of Michigan consumer confidence index fell to 82.8 in May, from 88.3 in April. More importantly, the current conditions index slumped to 90.8, from 97.2 and the expectations index declined to 77.6, from 82.7. Hard data also questions the strength of the recovery. April retail sales were flat, with clothing down 5.1 percent, general merchandise store sales fell 4.9 percent, leisure and sporting goods were down 3.6 percent, with food and drink services up just by 3 percent. United States industrial production was also almost flat in April, rising just 0.4 percent month on month...

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Prepare for Negative Interest Rates

Prepare for Negative Interest Rates

Negative rates are the destruction of money, an economic aberration based on the mistakes of many central banks and some of their economists, who all start from a wrong diagnosis: the idea that economic agents do not take more credit or invest more because they choose to save too much and therefore saving must be penalized to stimulate the economy. Excuse the bluntness, but it is a ludicrous idea. Inflation and growth are not low due to excess savings, but because of excess debt, which perpetuates overcapacity with low rates and high liquidity and zombifies the economy by subsidizing the...

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The Fed Panicked, and Its Rate Cut Is Making the Economy Worse

The Fed Panicked, and Its Rate Cut Is Making the Economy Worse

The Federal Reserve's monumental mistake of cutting rates this past week can only be understood in the context of the rising God complex among central planners: an overwhelming combination of ignorance and arrogance. Less than a week ago, several members of the Federal Reserve board reiterated—rightly so—that cutting rates would not have a significant impact in a supply shock like the current one. We must also remember that the Federal Reserve already cut rates in 2019 and inflated its balance sheet by 14 percent to almost all-time highs in recent months, completely reversing the...

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Is China a Better Trading Partner for Latin America Than the US?

Is China a Better Trading Partner for Latin America Than the US?

Part of the economic debate in Latin America, particularly in Argentina after the elections, focuses on what type of financial and trade relationship is most convenient for the region, and several discussions consider the merit of strengthening relations with China instead of the United States The first thing we should understand is that it is a false dilemma. Latin America is not in an economic situation where it can afford to “choose” trading and financial partners. Therefore, the answer is simple: Latin American countries must strengthen their commercial relations with all countries,...

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News

News Roundup 6/30/2022

US News Senator Van Hollen and Cardin, both from Maryland introduced the “Service to the Fleet Act,” a $632 million spending bill for the Coast Guard’s Baltimore-based shipyard. Forbes Russia Reuters reported on Wednesday that European officials are in talks on a...

Blog

Climate Lockdowns Are Here

  In a development that has been widely broadcast for decades (to those tuned to the correct frequency), Western countries have begun implementing the next step in the government-by-emergency manual. Indeed, once the public allows government to immolate its...

Substantive Due Process

[T]he conservatives reject substantive due process, which they see as a contradiction in terms that authorizes judges to legislate. If the term sounds odd, it would be odder still to dismiss the idea. As Roger Pilon writes, “By ‘law’ [in due process of law] the...

The Antiwar Comic: The War on Bodies

How quick they switch to the current thing. For more comics, visit The Webcomic Factory. Also, check out my latest book, The Pineys: Book 9: The Witch Hunter Piney.

Ending the Yemen War

There's a Resolution in the House, HJ Res 87, a War Powers Resolution demanding an end to all support for Saudi and UAE's war in Yemen. The new Libertarian Party is working with all the great Yemen war activists to do a pressure campaign on Congress to support it....

The Libertarian Party is Beating the Drums for Peace

For the people turning 21 this fall, America has been at war their entire lives. The Global War on Terror has reached its second generation of soldiers. Defense spending and the global presence of the U.S. military and armaments continue to proliferate. The...

The Scott Horton Show

6/27/22 Dan Steinbock: How Hawkish Democrats Make Money Pushing War

 Download Episode. Scott is joined by Dan Steinbock to discuss an article he wrote about the network of Democratic organizations running American foreign policy. Steinbock has dug deep into the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) and WestExec Advisors, two...

6/27/22 Dave Decamp on Ukraine, NATO and Antiwar.com

 Download Episode. Scott interviews Antiwar.com News Editor Dave Decamp about the recent developments in Eastern Europe. First, they examine Lithuania closing the easement into Russia’s Kaliningrad territory. The move is a dramatic escalation that Scott and Decamp...

6/20/22 Ramzy Baroud on Israel, Palestine and Mali

 Download Episode. Scott is joined by journalist and author Ramzy Baroud to discuss the deterioration of Israeli Politics and the war in Mali. Israel will hold its fifth election in four years after yet another failure to form a government. Baroud gives some...

Conflicts of Interest

COI #294: The NYT Reveals CIA Officers are Operating in Ukraine

On COI #294, Kyle Anzalone discusses the White House ramping up great power conflict with Russia and China.   Odysee Rumble  Donate LBRY Credits bTTEiLoteVdMbLS7YqDVSZyjEY1eMgW7CP Donate Bitcoin 36PP4kT28jjUZcL44dXDonFwrVVDHntsrk Donate Bitcoin Cash...

Don't Tread on Anyone

6 Progressive Myths About History (w/ Lawrence W. Reed)

https://youtu.be/HsXj83JNUb4 In May 1939, Treasury Secretary Henry J. Morgenthau Jr., one of Franklin Roosevelt's best friends, testified before the House Ways and Means Committee: "I say after eight years of this Administration we have just as much unemployment as...

Liberty Weekly Podcast

Proxy Wars…The Punishment Due Ep. 221

  https://youtu.be/51gBx3rE7zw In this week's episode, I take the audience on an even deeper dive into my most recent piece for the Libertarian Institute. Episode 221 of the Liberty Weekly Podcast is Brought to you by: LibertyWeekly.club Join my membership and...

National Review Senior Editor Turns Rothbardian Ep. 220

https://youtu.be/sJXF9jgj1L4 Managing Editor of the Libertarian Institute and longtime friend and guest of the show Keith Knight joins me in this week's episode to review an article by Joseph Sobran. Sobran was the Senior Editor of the National Review, but questioned...

Patrick MacFarlane on the Hrvoje Moric Show Ep. 219

https://youtu.be/yI1ND-TJR8g This week's episode is a mirror of my recent appearance on the Hrvoje Moric Show on Tnt Radio. We discuss the war in Ukraine, China, and the brave new world we are sleepwalking into. Hrvoje is the host of Geopolitics and Empire Podcast....

Empire of Death: America’s Moral Bankruptcy Ep. 218

https://youtu.be/7yZEk73JdVo In this episode, I take a deeper dive on my latest editorial up at the Libertarian Institute, share my experience at Chillderburg, introduce my new newsletter website, and thank several outlets that have started reprinting my Libertarian...

Year Zero

Nihilism w/Buck Johnson

Buck joined me to discuss Nihilism by Fr Seraphim Rose. Nihilism is an interesting critique of liberalism that walks through the stages of societal degradation. Fr Seraphim determines that the replacement of an objective truth with relative truth sends the world into...

A Deep Dive w/Monica Perez

Monica Perez joined me for an in depth conversation on culture, religion, ESG, WEF, the future, and how the 21st Century is different than the 20th Century. Monica Twitter Discord Libertarian Institute 19 Skills Pdf Autonomy Course Critical Thinking Course Donate...

Love and Fear w/Courtenay Turner

Courtenay and I talk ESG, intentional communities, motivations, elites, and the future. Courtenay Twitter Courtenay Turner Podcast Discord Libertarian Institute 19 Skills Pdf Autonomy Course Critical Thinking Course Donate Patreon...

Shadowy Figures Surrounding 9/11 w/Adam Fitzgerald

Adam Fitzgerald joined me to discuss the less talked about aspects of 9/11. We spent most of our time discussing the characters involved and around the event. We could have gone for hours on this subject, but as you will hear, I hit a wall at the 2 hour mark. Adam...

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