On a moonless night in September 2025, American warships patrolling the Caribbean Sea opened fire on a Venezuelan vessel, killing eleven people. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth described it matter-of-factly as another drug interdiction operation. But to those watching the steady deterioration of U.S.-Venezuela relations over the past three decades, the deadly strike represented something far more ominous: the culmination of nearly thirty years of failed policy, botched coups, and mounting hostility that has brought two nations to the brink of armed conflict. Today, experts estimate the odds...















