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Cuomo’s Wager

Pascal’s Wager is a familiar idea. It goes something like this: regardless of what you may think about the existence of God, rational cost-benefit analysis says you should sign on. After all, if you do and you’re wrong, what have you lost? But if you don’t and you’re wrong, uh oh — you’re in big trouble, buster. (I’m not saying this makes sense, by the way.)

Something similar has gone on with the coronavirus pandemic and the draconian economic policies embraced by many governors in the United States, best exemplified New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and California Gov. Gavin Newsom. They have made a wager sort of like this: if we don’t shut the economy down and the pandemic fulfills the worst-case scenario, we are all in big trouble; but if we do shut the economic down and the pandemic falls closer to the best-case scenario, what will have been lost?

For those with their eyes open, the answer to this last question is simple: a lot. Forbidding most economic activity has to impose substantial hardship — material and otherwise — on countless people, not to mention future generations. I won’t go into detail, and I shouldn’t need to. Just think about it for a few moments. (See David Henderson’s “End the Lockdowns Now.”) And I haven’t mentioned the future harm from government’s so-called solutions: enormous deficit spending, money creation by the Federal Reserve, and the ratchet (specifically, the Higgs) effect from precedents set..

The point is that it’s easy to “reason” to the policy outcome you want if you list only the real and imagined benefits and ignore all the burdens. This was what Frédéric Bastiat was getting at in his brilliant essay “What Is Seen and What Is Unseen.”

The blunt-instrument policies adopted by many governors were chosen in the dark. Flawed statistical models seemed to shed light, but knowledgeable people questioned the validity of those models from Day One. At any rate, we know more now (though not nearly enough), so it’s time for the lockdown orders to be lifted, liberating society’s widespread entrepreneurial problem-solving process to do its thing.

As Coronavirus Spreads In Meat Plants, Nearly 200 USDA Inspectors Test Positive

Meat inspectors travel to multiple plants to inspect but what if they are carriers of the virus? From Food Dive

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“A U.S. Agriculture Department spokesperson told Food Dive that 197 field employees in the Food Safety and Inspection Service ​are absent from work after testing positive for coronavirus and 120 FSIS employees are under self-quarantine due to contact with or exposure to COVID-1​9 as of May 5.”

“The American Federation of Government Employees, a union representing 6,500 federal food inspectors, said three inspectors have died in Illinois, Mississippi and New York, Meat and Poultry reported.” 

The FSIS now has enough masks and protective gear (as of last month inspectors had to find their own according to an article at Politico) for a few months and due to plant closings they are able to keep up with inspections. However, they are concerned that as plants reopen the smaller work force won’t be able to provide enough inspectors. They may have fewer inspectors that have to travel to multiple plants thus risking the further spread of the virus or they may forgo inspections altogether at some plants.

Food Dive is tracking plant closing here.

H/T to Fwoggie2 follow his supply chain updates here

 

 

 

Glynn County District Attorney Jackie Johnson is a Guilty Accessory to Murder

The ex-cop whose son murdered that black jogger? The cops were ready to arrest them both for murder right there on the spot, but then the perp’s “blue privilege” kicked in:

The police at the scene went to her, saying they were ready to arrest both of them. These were the police at the scene who had done the investigation,” Commissioner Allen Booker, who has spoken with Glynn County police, told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “She shut them down to protect her friend McMichael.”

Greg McMichael, now retired, once worked as an investigator in Johnson’s office.

Commissioner Peter Murphy, who also said he spoke directly to Glynn County police about the incident, said officers at the scene concluded they had probable cause to make arrests and contacted Johnson’s office to inform the prosecutor of their decision.

“They were told not to make the arrest,” Murphy said.

Of course, their accessory after the fact, the DA, will never be held accountable in any way whatsoever other than good people like you and me making sure that her name is made famous so her children always know that humanity hate their mom because of what a sub-human disgusting piece of shit she is. Your mom’s a piece of shit, kid. Everybody thinks so. No, really. Here’s what else they all say about her too:

The Arbery case isn’t the only one Johnson has been criticized over. For more than a month, her office has known of new DNA evidence that, the Georgia Innocence Project says, proves Dennis Perry, a man who’s been in prison 20 years for murder, is innocent. Johnson hasn’t acted to free Perry — even though four legal experts say she should do so immediately.

If there is a God, he is very unlikely to forgive Jackie Johnson for these deadly sins. There’s a better chance he’ll have Satan torture her with fire forever and ever and ever, like she deserves.

L’etat C’est Moi!

Trump has vetoed Congress’s effort to keep him from going to war against Iran unilaterally. Nothing remarkable there. We’ve come to expect such things from the fraud who posed as antiwar.

What’s interesting is that Trump has reminded of what a narcissist he is. That fact is so much a part of the landscape that it can be hard to notice these days.

In vetoing the bill passed under the War Powers Resolution, a 1970s post-Vietnam attempt to restore Congress’s exclusive power under the Constitution to make war, Trump said, “This was a very insulting resolution….”

Insulting? That’s why he vetoed it? Apparently Trump is incapable of seeing congressional action he doesn’t like as anything but personal. It’s hard to imagine another president saying this publicly. Other presidents would have pushed back (erroneously) against the constitutional war-powers argument, but they wouldn’t have made it personal, even if they suspected it.

As I’ve often said, Trump is a caricature of the establishment politician, and that’s why the establishment hates him.

The Secretive Israeli Company Developing A Vaccine For Coronavirus

Shortly after a message to Israelis on May 4 by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Defense Ministry announced that the Israel Institute For Biological Research (IIBR) had identified a monoclonal antibody that neutralizes the coronavirus. This would be an important discovery since it could lead to a broad treatment for coronavirus disease. The Israel Institute For Biological Research is also working to develop a vaccine for coronavirus and has secured a sight for Israels first vaccine production facility in the southern town of Yeroham. The company is seeking funding from The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and is negotiating for a third partner with a pharmaceutical company from India and the Unites States.

But, what is the IIBR?  According to a report at The Jerusalem Post:

Like Israel’s nuclear facility in Dimona, the IIBR operates under the auspices of the Prime Minister’s Office and works closely with the Defense Ministry. Most of the work carried out by the secretive institute is a heavily guarded secret reinforced by military censorship. But its history began before the founding of the State of Israel. 

Prof. Shmuel C. Shapira, an anesthesiologist by training, has headed it since 2013. The IIBR employs some 350 people, including about 160 scientists with doctorates in biology, biochemistry, biotechnology, analytical chemistry, organic chemistry, physical chemistry, pharmacology, mathematics, physics and environmental science. There are another 160 technicians and administrative staff.

It continues to be viewed by the defense establishment as one of the country’s most secretive defense installations. The public rarely knows what goes on behind the highly guarded walls of the institute.

Though it has expanded its research, according to foreign publications, the institute is still involved in developing biological and chemical weapons.

And, it has a shady past:

In 1983, the deputy director of the IIBR, Marcus Klingberg, was arrested along with his wife for passing the institute’s secrets to the Soviets. Klingberg, who was regarded as one of the world’s most-respected epidemiologists and an expert on top-secret biological and chemical research, was one of the founding members of the IIBR after he served in HEMED BEIT.

During his 30 years at the institute, he was questioned twice by security officials (in 1965 and 1976) but was only arrested close to a decade later. His arrest was kept secret until 1993.He was sentenced to 20 years in prison, including 10 years in solitary confinement, before he was released in 2003. He died in 2015 in Paris.

While the majority of the case remains classified, according to foreign reports, it is believed that he gave the Soviets some of Israel’s most sensitive military secrets in the field of CBW.

In 1992, an El Al transport plane carrying some 189 liters of dimethyl methylphosphonate (DMMP), a dual-use chemical used in the production of Sarin nerve gas, crashed in Amsterdam, killing more than 40 people. The DMMP was designated for the IIBR, according to The New York Times.

“Since 1995, the institute has operated as a government-affiliated unit that researches all areas of defense against chemical and biological weapons, including the operation of national laboratories for detection and identification of such threats,” the institute says on its website.

During the “Omer-2” project, some 760 soldiers served as guinea pigs over the course of eight years in the 1990s as the country worked to develop a vaccine against anthrax. The project, headed by Dr. Avigdor Shafferman (who later became the director general of the IIBR), was carried out in cooperation with the Defense Ministry and the IDF Medical Corps.

Troops were injected with up to seven doses of the vaccine but were not informed of the risks of being infected with the deadly disease.

In 2007, dozens of soldiers were interviewed by Israel’s Uvda television show. They suffered from medical conditions such as skin tumors, intestinal and digestive issues, severe lung infections, serious migraines, bronchitis, epilepsy and feelings of constant tiredness and weakness.

According to a 2011 report in Haaretz, the soldiers from the military’s elite Unit 8200, paratroopers and others “participated in these experiments, in complete contravention of the Helsinki Accords, which established rules for medical experiments on human subjects.”

While the exposure of the project sparked a massive public uproar and saw army regulations for conducting trials on human subjects tightened, Shafferman and others involved were not prosecuted, Haaretz reported.

The institute also was reported to be behind the poison injected into senior Hamas official Khaled Mashaal in Amman, Jordan, in 1997. Israel admitted to the failed assassination attempt and provided the serum that saved his life in return for the Mossad agents who had been captured.  The antidote, which was originally meant for Israeli operatives should they come into contact with the poison, was allegedly developed at the IIBR.

The company has also secured $12 million funding from the Israeli VC Fund OurCrowd. Just so happens that OurCrowd has a convenient connection to the Trump administration.

Trumps ex-mideast envoy Jason Greenblatt announced February, 2020 that he would be joining OurCrowd as a Business Developer for the region:

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OurCrowd said the former attorney for Donald Trump will be acting as a partner responsible for “building ties with the Middle East region.”

Greenblatt was the architect of Trump’s recently unveiled Mideast plan that largely favored Israel. He worked as the White House’s special representative for international negotiations until resigning in October 2019.

And, you can be sure of this:

OurCrowd’s founder Jon Medved said in a statement that he expects Greenblatt’s addition “to open up a new world of opportunities for our growing portfolio of 200+ companies and 20 funds.”

Radical Incrementalism?

Hell, yes! Radical abolitionist anarchist libertarians can — and I say ought to be — incrementalists because, sorry, “abolition now!” is not on the menu today. No contradiction exists in the radical incrementalist or the incrementalist radical.

Tom Knapp addresses this point quite capably in his re-post “Blast from the Past — Without a Net: Compromise versus Calculation.” I recommend it highly.

The reason that no conflict need exist between abolitionism and incrementalism is that the former is an end while the latter is a means:

Incrementalism involves setting (and achieving) incremental goals — taking “baby steps” in one’s chosen direction. Incrementalism is a proposed means.

Abolitionism is the notion that wrongs should be abolished rather than simply minimized (and, at the abstract anarchist extreme — no insult intended, that happens to be where I live myself — that all wrongs must be abolished in order for the abolitionist to claim victory). Abolition is a proposed end or set of ends.

Thus, Knapp adds, “incrementalist means are not only available to “purists” and ‘abolitionists,’ but used by them, and are therefore not available only to ‘pragmatists.'” He also has much to say about “pragmatists,” who turn out to be pretty poor incrementalists.

I wrote about this issue five years ago in “Rothbardian Thoughts on Strategy.”

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