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How to Misuse Global COVID-19 Statistics

How to Misuse Global COVID-19 Statistics

by | Sep 7, 2020 | ,

Have you heard about Somalia's COVID-19 policy? In the official statistics, Somalia has just 3,362 confirmed infections and 97 confirmed deaths from COVID-19. On a per capita basis, the country has a death toll just barely above New Zealand, and below other widely reported success stories like South Korea, Japan, Norway, Germany, etc. Yet, my guess is you probably have not heard much about how Somalia defeated the coronavirus. Why is that? The reason is that, implicitly, no one thinks Somalia's statistics reflect the underlying reality. Still the recurring target of US drone strikes and...

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Is Sweden’s COVID-19 Response a Cautionary Tale or a Model to Follow? It’s Complicated

Is Sweden’s COVID-19 Response a Cautionary Tale or a Model to Follow? It’s Complicated

by | Aug 2, 2020 |

In the ongoing debate about lockdowns in the US, Sweden has become the battleground. To mainstream media outlets, Sweden's experience is cited as a cautionary tale. CBS writes that Sweden has become "an example of how not to handle COVID-19". Meanwhile, to those who have been skeptical of the lockdown policy all along, Sweden's results are occasionally cited in glowing terms. For instance, Jeffrey Tucker of AIER tweeted this out last week, showing that Sweden's daily death toll has slowed to a crawl: So which version is true? Did Sweden's less restrictive approach to COVID-19 usher in the...

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How to Misuse Global COVID-19 Statistics

NPR Report on Florida’s Record Infections Misleads Its Audience

by | Jul 14, 2020 |

This Monday, NPR consumers woke up to this alarming report on the coronavirus: Florida Smashes U.S. State Record Of Daily New Cases: More Than 15,200 Not content to scare readers in the headline, the dire framing continues in body of the report, which was discussed on the Up First podcast. Some illustrative quotes below: Florida reported 15,299 new coronavirus cases on Sunday, marking the largest single-day increase of any state since the start of the pandemic. Sunday's number exceeds New York's peak of more than 12,200 new cases in one day back in April, when it was the epicenter of the...

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Three Observations on the Second Wave of COVID-19

Three Observations on the Second Wave of COVID-19

by | Jun 29, 2020 | ,

The long-feared second wave of COVID-19 in the United States appears to have arrived. National case numbers are making new records and two states have started to move back towards quarantine. Since news reports on the virus continue to emphasize the wrong metrics, some important facts about the new wave often get missed. Here are three things to know about the new rise in cases. 1. The recent rise in cases cannot be explained by increases in testing. This is an important point because the onset of a second jump in cases has been declared prematurely several times before now. These types of...

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How to Misuse Global COVID-19 Statistics

Three Ways Not To Analyze COVID-19 Statistics

by | Jun 2, 2020 | ,

The COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns continue to cause unprecedented devastation of everyday life in the United States--approximately 100,000 deaths, tens of millions unemployed, and countless plans, activities, and goals put on an indefinite hold. In this context, news outlets, politicians, and consumers are closely following the trends in the COVID-19 statistics, trying to answer the most pressing questions. Are things getting better or worse in the US? Have we succeeded in the flattening the curve? Are the reopened states seeing a surge in new cases that many have feared? These are...

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Using Bad Math, Media Claims No State Has Met the Reopening Guidelines on New Cases

Using Bad Math, Media Claims No State Has Met the Reopening Guidelines on New Cases

by | May 4, 2020 | ,

As the debate over lifting the lockdowns in the US intensifies, key data points on testing and infections are routinely mischaracterized. Consider this summary from Chris Wallace on Fox News Sunday on May 3: As we said, about half the states -- more than half the states have started in some way, shape, or form, reopening. But we've crunched the numbers, Doctor, and not a single state has met the White House gating guidelines of two weeks of steady decline in new cases. It's not just Fox News that is describing the data in this way. Here's how NBC News reported it on April 28: As a handful of...

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Between a Rock and San Francisco

by | Jun 6, 2018 |

Over at Reason, Christian Britschgi reports on one of the unfortunate choices that faced San Franciscans in this week's vote--whether to increase a business receipts tax by ~500 or ~1,000 percent. As I write this, it's too close to call and more votes are coming in, but it's possible that San Franciscans might end up declining them both. Here's hoping.

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Congress Lifts a Stress Off the Financial System

by | May 31, 2018 | ,

Congress has finally taken action to liberalize the nation's financial system. The bill was S. 2155, the Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act. It passed both houses with a surprising degree of bipartisan support and was signed by President Trump last week on May 24. Opponents cast the bill as a gift to the largest banks that will put the economy at greater risk for a new financial crisis. In fact, the bill represents a modest and limited reform of Dodd-Frank. The law scales back an onerous regulatory exercise of questionable utility, and it actually reduces the...

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