Monetary Policy

Lunatic With a Plan: Erdogan and Turkey’s Economic Woes

vladimir putin and recep tayyip erdoğan (2015 06 13) 3

Since the first assault on Turkey’s finances in 2018, which I wrote about multiple times (here, here, and here), I’ve been the lone voice telling everyone that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is a lunatic but he’s a lunatic with a plan. That plan is to de-dollarize the economy of a valuable member of NATO geostrategically. Since the first shots across the bow by the Trump administration at Erdogan’s toying with those powers east of the Bosporus (Russia, China and Iran) the Turkish lira has been the primary mode of attack against Erdogan. Erdogan has pursued what has been deemed unorthodox...

Money, Expectations, and Economic Growth

In various writings, Milton Friedman argued that there is a variable lag between changes in money supply and its effect on real output and prices. Friedman held that in the short run changes in money supply will be followed by changes in real output. However, in the long run changes in money will only have an effect on prices. This means, according to Friedman, that changes in money with respect to real economic activity tend to be neutral in the long run and non-neutral in the short run. In the short-run, which may be as much as five or ten years, monetary changes affect primarily...

The Fed Looks Increasingly Concerned About Liquidity and Growth — Even If it Says Otherwise

The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday, cutting the target federal funds rate by 0.25 percent to a range of 0.5 to 0.75 percent. The Fed's rate-setting committee, the FOMC, has now cut rates three times this year. The committee's rhetoric around the rate cut was the usual routine. The committee's statement indicated that " labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate." But the official statement says something similar nearly every time the committee meets. So, there is no information here to suggests why the...

The Penalty For Saving

In previous articles, we have outlined in great detail the many faults of the current monetary policy direction of major central banks and the large-scale economic impact of keeping interest rates artificially low. Among the worst offenders is the ECB, that is unapologetically persistent on continuing this exercise in absurdity that are negative interest rates. Over the last few years, the effects of this decision have been felt by pensioners and by responsible, conservative investors, who were forced to increase their risk in order to achieve reasonable returns. However, by now, we start...

Trump, the Fed, and a Trillion Dollar Game of Hot Potato

This Tuesday, President Donald Trump further fanned the flames of his already contentious relationship with the Federal Reserve, referring to the central bank as his “biggest threat.” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, a Trump appointee, caught the ire of the president. Of the appointment, Trump recently told Fox News, “Maybe it’s right, maybe it’s wrong…There are a lot of other people there I’m not so happy with.” This is only the latest slight by President Trump. Just last week he referred to the Fed’s recent decision making as having “gone crazy,” though he backpedaled on that statement by...

This Chart Explains Why the US Debt Trajectory Is Unsustainable

Earlier today we discussed a report by Goldman Sachs which, when summarized, suggested that unless something significant changes in the coming years, the current US fiscal policy will lead to a debt catastrophe. In an unprecedented warning, the bank which spawned Trump's chief economic advisor Gary Cohn, ironically the architect behind Trump's fiscal strategy, warned that "the continued growth of public debt raises eventual sustainability questions if left unchecked." It is worth highlighting that for Goldman to warn that the US fiscal and debt trajectory is unsustainable is quite...

3 Forces Driving Interest Rates Higher

In the past two weeks, interest rates have gone up sharply, sparking turmoil in the stock market. To take one example, the rate on 10-year Treasury bonds went from 2.66% on Jan. 26 to close at 2.85% on Feb. 12. The recent moves have brought key interest rates up to levels they haven't seen since 2014. If the Federal Reserve sticks with its current policy course, chances are that interest rates will go higher still. Why Interest Rates Are Headed Higher There are three main forces that will help push interest rates up in the US: Federal Reserve Rate Hikes Federal Reserve Quantitative...

Why Good News Was Bad News for the Market

Over the last two trading days (2/2 and 2/5), the Dow Jones Industrial Average has lost more than 1,800 points, or about 7%. Meanwhile, the S&P has lost 173 points, or more than 6%. These sharp downward moves have many people looking for an explanation. No big companies failed. No wars were started. No new policies were enacted. So why did the market lose nearly 7% of its value in two days? Part of the answer is this: a better-than-expected jobs report. That is, the markets received positive news on the US labor market, indicating that the US economy appears to be in good health. In...

Alan Greenspan, Sellout

Sebastian Mallaby is the Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economic Relations at the Council on Foreign Relations. One can be sure, then, that his new comprehensive book, The Man Who Knew: The Life and Times of Alan Greenspan, reflects an Establishment point of view. As if this were not enough to tell us where the book is coming from, Mallaby informs us that he had Greenspan’s full cooperation in writing it. “This book is based on almost unlimited access to Alan Greenspan, his papers, and his colleagues and friends, all of whom were generous in their collaboration. Though...

The Fed Does Nothing

2017 is off with a drab whisper as the FOMC, as expected, kept the Fed Funds rate target unchanged at .5-.75%. Further, there was no mention of the alleged three 2017 hikes, which “experts” might consider as to be dovish move. The Press Release was optimistic about the economy and cited a strengthening labor market, economic expansion, and consumer sentiment. Perhaps they haven't seen the delicate fourth quarter GDP numbers? One of the themes of 2017 is the issue of the Fed Balance Sheet and whether the Fed is going to be talking up some sort of effort toward shrinking it. On this front,...

News

UN Will Cut Food Aid for Millions of Yemenis, Again

The United Nations World Food Program (WFP) will drastically scale back its humanitarian aid to Yemen – where it provides emergency food assistance to more than 13 million people – citing funding shortfalls and soaring prices around the globe.

News Roundup 6/29/2022

Ukraine War According to a report from CNN, White House officials are losing confidence that Ukraine will be able to retake all the territory Russia has captured since it invaded on February 24 as Russian forces continue to make gains in the eastern Donbas region. AWC...

Blog

Climate Lockdowns Are Here

  In a development that has been widely broadcast for decades (to those tuned to the correct frequency), Western countries have begun implementing the next step in the government-by-emergency manual. Indeed, once the public allows government to immolate its...

Substantive Due Process

[T]he conservatives reject substantive due process, which they see as a contradiction in terms that authorizes judges to legislate. If the term sounds odd, it would be odder still to dismiss the idea. As Roger Pilon writes, “By ‘law’ [in due process of law] the...

The Antiwar Comic: The War on Bodies

How quick they switch to the current thing. For more comics, visit The Webcomic Factory. Also, check out my latest book, The Pineys: Book 9: The Witch Hunter Piney.

Ending the Yemen War

There's a Resolution in the House, HJ Res 87, a War Powers Resolution demanding an end to all support for Saudi and UAE's war in Yemen. The new Libertarian Party is working with all the great Yemen war activists to do a pressure campaign on Congress to support it....

The Libertarian Party is Beating the Drums for Peace

For the people turning 21 this fall, America has been at war their entire lives. The Global War on Terror has reached its second generation of soldiers. Defense spending and the global presence of the U.S. military and armaments continue to proliferate. The...

The Scott Horton Show

6/27/22 Dave Decamp on Ukraine, NATO and Antiwar.com

 Download Episode. Scott interviews Antiwar.com News Editor Dave Decamp about the recent developments in Eastern Europe. First, they examine Lithuania closing the easement into Russia’s Kaliningrad territory. The move is a dramatic escalation that Scott and Decamp...

6/20/22 Ramzy Baroud on Israel, Palestine and Mali

 Download Episode. Scott is joined by journalist and author Ramzy Baroud to discuss the deterioration of Israeli Politics and the war in Mali. Israel will hold its fifth election in four years after yet another failure to form a government. Baroud gives some...

Conflicts of Interest

COI #294: The NYT Reveals CIA Officers are Operating in Ukraine

On COI #294, Kyle Anzalone discusses the White House ramping up great power conflict with Russia and China.   Odysee Rumble  Donate LBRY Credits bTTEiLoteVdMbLS7YqDVSZyjEY1eMgW7CP Donate Bitcoin 36PP4kT28jjUZcL44dXDonFwrVVDHntsrk Donate Bitcoin Cash...

Don't Tread on Anyone

6 Progressive Myths About History (w/ Lawrence W. Reed)

https://youtu.be/HsXj83JNUb4 In May 1939, Treasury Secretary Henry J. Morgenthau Jr., one of Franklin Roosevelt's best friends, testified before the House Ways and Means Committee: "I say after eight years of this Administration we have just as much unemployment as...

Liberty Weekly Podcast

Proxy Wars…The Punishment Due Ep. 221

  https://youtu.be/51gBx3rE7zw In this week's episode, I take the audience on an even deeper dive into my most recent piece for the Libertarian Institute. Episode 221 of the Liberty Weekly Podcast is Brought to you by: LibertyWeekly.club Join my membership and...

National Review Senior Editor Turns Rothbardian Ep. 220

https://youtu.be/sJXF9jgj1L4 Managing Editor of the Libertarian Institute and longtime friend and guest of the show Keith Knight joins me in this week's episode to review an article by Joseph Sobran. Sobran was the Senior Editor of the National Review, but questioned...

Patrick MacFarlane on the Hrvoje Moric Show Ep. 219

https://youtu.be/yI1ND-TJR8g This week's episode is a mirror of my recent appearance on the Hrvoje Moric Show on Tnt Radio. We discuss the war in Ukraine, China, and the brave new world we are sleepwalking into. Hrvoje is the host of Geopolitics and Empire Podcast....

Empire of Death: America’s Moral Bankruptcy Ep. 218

https://youtu.be/7yZEk73JdVo In this episode, I take a deeper dive on my latest editorial up at the Libertarian Institute, share my experience at Chillderburg, introduce my new newsletter website, and thank several outlets that have started reprinting my Libertarian...

Year Zero

Nihilism w/Buck Johnson

Buck joined me to discuss Nihilism by Fr Seraphim Rose. Nihilism is an interesting critique of liberalism that walks through the stages of societal degradation. Fr Seraphim determines that the replacement of an objective truth with relative truth sends the world into...

A Deep Dive w/Monica Perez

Monica Perez joined me for an in depth conversation on culture, religion, ESG, WEF, the future, and how the 21st Century is different than the 20th Century. Monica Twitter Discord Libertarian Institute 19 Skills Pdf Autonomy Course Critical Thinking Course Donate...

Love and Fear w/Courtenay Turner

Courtenay and I talk ESG, intentional communities, motivations, elites, and the future. Courtenay Twitter Courtenay Turner Podcast Discord Libertarian Institute 19 Skills Pdf Autonomy Course Critical Thinking Course Donate Patreon...

Shadowy Figures Surrounding 9/11 w/Adam Fitzgerald

Adam Fitzgerald joined me to discuss the less talked about aspects of 9/11. We spent most of our time discussing the characters involved and around the event. We could have gone for hours on this subject, but as you will hear, I hit a wall at the 2 hour mark. Adam...

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